AlexMennen comments on Against Expected Utility - Less Wrong

-3 Post author: Houshalter 23 September 2015 09:21PM

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Comment author: AlexMennen 24 September 2015 06:40:37PM 3 points [-]

You're missing VincentYu's point, which is also a point I have made to you earlier: the utility function in the conclusion of the VNM theorem is not the same as a utility function that you came up with a completely different way, like by declaring linearity with respect to number of lives.

If you assign some subjective "value" to different outcomes, and to different things, then maximizing expected u̶t̶i̶l̶i̶t̶y̶ value, will maximize it, as the number of decisions approaches infinity. For every bet I lose at certain odds, I will gain more from others some predictable percent of the time. On average it cancels out.

This might not be the standard way of explaining expected utility, but it's very simple and intuitive, and shows exactly where the problem is. It's certainly sufficient for the explanation in my post.

This is an absurd strawman that has absolutely nothing to do with the motivation for EU maximization.

Comment author: Houshalter 25 September 2015 03:55:12AM -1 points [-]

You're missing VincentYu's point, which is also a point I have made to you earlier: the utility function in the conclusion of the VNM theorem is not the same as a utility function that you came up with a completely different way, like by declaring linearity with respect to number of lives.

I discussed this in my post. I know VNM is indifferent to what utility function you use. I know the utility function doesn't have to be linear. But I showed that no transformation of it fixes the problems or produces the behavior we want.

This is an absurd strawman that has absolutely nothing to do with the motivation for EU maximization.

It's not a strawman! I know there are multiple ways of deriving EU. If you derive it a different way, that's fine. It doesn't affect any of my arguments whatsoever.

Comment author: AlexMennen 25 September 2015 05:37:59AM 2 points [-]

But I showed that no transformation of it fixes the problems or produces the behavior we want.

No, you only tried two: linearity, and a bound that's way too low.

It's not a strawman! I know there are multiple ways of deriving EU. If you derive it a different way, that's fine. It doesn't affect any of my arguments whatsoever.

You picked a possible defense of EU maximization that no one ever uses to defend EU maximization, because it is stupid and therefore easy for you to criticize. That's what a strawman is. You use your argument against this strawman to criticize EU maximization without addressing the real motivations behind it, so it absolutely does affect your arguments.