Lumifer comments on Open thread, Oct. 5 - Oct. 11, 2015 - Less Wrong

7 Post author: MrMind 05 October 2015 06:50AM

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Comment author: Lumifer 07 October 2015 03:37:36PM *  1 point [-]

that looks like a good thing if it actually works out rather than leading to [bad things] in the end

This is an entirely generic attitude suitable for everything that claims to have a noble aim in mind.

More democracy is usually good, other things being equal

Doesn't look like a workable prior given that other things are never equal. Looks like a hedged version of "the expected value of more democracy is more good".

the two possibilities you mention are both, if you'll pardon my directness, rather stupid

I don't think so. Nancy is not an expert in Arab politics -- she relies on opinions of others. Given this, accepting the prevailing opinion of the media (of the appropriate political flavour) is an entirely normal thing and happens all the time. "There is another coup in Backwardistan? The newspaper I read says it's bad? Oh, I guess it must be so <yawn>".

Ditto with using general priors when you can't or can't bother to analyze the situation yourself.

Comment author: gjm 07 October 2015 09:25:33PM 0 points [-]

generic attitude suitable for everything that claims to have a noble end in mind.

Nope. For instance, abstinence-only sex education claims to have in mind the noble end of preserving the virtue of the young. I do not particularly hope that it succeeds in its aims, because I disagree about their nobility.

Regarding what the "Arab Spring" was trying to do as a noble end (as opposed to one merely claimed to be noble) says something not altogether trivial about the values of the person who so regards it.