Open thread, Nov. 09 - Nov. 15, 2015

MrMind

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If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.

Notes for future OT posters:

1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.

2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately before; refresh the list-of-threads page before posting.)

3. Open Threads should be posted in Discussion, and not Main.

4. Open Threads should start on Monday, and end on Sunday.

Or more workably, we should bet on how quickly obviously Unfriendly AI will emerge and begin the destructive acts that will eventually destroy us all.

I think even if you believe that UFAI will kill us the scenario that there will be obvious UFAI and at the same time a world where a bet like this will be played out is inprobable.

I think even if you believe that UFAI will kill us the scenario that there will be obvious UFAI and at the same time a world where a bet like this will be played out is inprobable.

Why? I don't think UFAI can kill us in mere hours/minutes, and at some point during the months or years it will probably take, someone, somewhere, will notice what's going on. They probably wouldn't be able to stop it, but there's every chance it would become known.

And for my apparently abundant downvoters, the whole reason I'm asking to take bets is because some people repe... (read more)

2Vaniver11y

The version that sort of works are "existence futures" (that's not the standard name, unless I happened to reinvent it). Eli pays someone $1 now, and that person pays Eli $N dollars in M years. N is a combination of the interest rate and the person's belief that they and Eli will still exist in M years. If I think there's a 50% chance that the world will end at the start of 2016, and Eli thinks the chance is 0%, both of us would see a deal where he gives me a dollar now and I give him $1.50 on Feb 1st as profitable. The trouble with them is that if I really think the world is likely to end on Jan 1st, I'm probably making a host of similar decisions that make it unlikely that I'll actually be able to repay him on Feb--if I'm selling everything and playing video games until the world ends, then when the world doesn't end, where is the money going to come from to repay Eli?