For the extreme stuff, I think you'll get clues from things like how people like you are treated on the street.-- if it's your country. If you're at risk of being conquered by a government that hates you, the estimate is more complicated.
For the more likely things to keep track of, think about what's likely to affect you (like changes in laws) and use specialist sources.
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately before; refresh the list-of-threads page before posting.)
3. Open Threads should be posted in Discussion, and not Main.
4. Open Threads should start on Monday, and end on Sunday.