Why do you call that "signaling"? A top-tier school has a real, actual, territory-level advantage over a backwater college. The undergrads there are different.

Because you're going by the signal (the college name), not the actual thing you're measuring for (forecasting ability).

I don't know about that not being a problem. Lack of information is lack of information. Pooling forecasts is not magical.

I meant a problem for frequent updates. Obviously, less participants will lead to less accurate forecasts - but by brier weighting and extremizing you can still get fairly decent results.