87 per cent in 10 000 years
That's not my idea of "near certainty".
with goal to get more comforting result
That is not my goal, and I have no idea why you suggest it is.
But I prefer to take claims on their face value.
It doesn't appear to me that you are doing this in Hawking's case; rather, you are reading all sorts of implications into his words that they don't logically entail and don't seem to me to imply in weaker senses either.
they could start war between each other too.
Sure, they could. But I don't see any particular reason to assume that they would.
We don't know what Hawking meant by "near certainty" - 90 per cent or 99,999 per cent and depending on it we may come to different conclusion about what probability it implies for next 100 years. Most readers will not do this type of calculations anyway. They will learn that global risks is something that could happen in 1000 - 10 000 years time frame. And will discount it as unimportant.
Your goal seems to be to prove that Hawking thinks thats global risks are real in near term future while he said exactly opposite.
A lot of media starts to repor...
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