predict with high confidence a Republican win
Odd since most prediction markets have a 60/40 split in favor of a Democrat winning the US presidency.
E.g., https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres16_Quotes.html
Sanders vs. Trump.
The polls have Sanders ahead in this particular matchup ...
Yes, I've mostly seen a Democrat favored. I bet two bitcoin on Hilary a year ago based on FiveThirtyEight's posts.
Yesterday at our LW Berlin Dojo we talked about areas where we disagree. We got 4 issues:
1) AI risk is important
2) Everybody should be vegan.
3) It's good to make being an aspiring rationalist part of your identity.
4) Being conscious of privacy is important
Can you think of other meaningful issues where you think our community disagrees? At best issues that actually matter for our day to day decisions?