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knb comments on Open Thread March 28 - April 3 , 2016 - Less Wrong
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It would be more reasonable to use trend-extrapolation if it was a field where you would necessarily be able to discern a trend. Yudkowsky argues there could be sharp discontinuities. Personally I don't really feel qualified to have a strong opinion, and I would not be able to discern a trend even if it exists.