Stefan_Schubert comments on Sleepwalk bias, self-defeating predictions and existential risk - Less Wrong

5 Post author: Stefan_Schubert 22 April 2016 06:31PM

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Comment author: Stefan_Schubert 24 April 2016 12:07:04PM 2 points [-]

Thanks. My claim is somewhat different, though. Adams says that "whenever humanity can see a slow-moving disaster coming, we find a way to avoid it". This is an all-things-considered claim. My claim is rather that sleepwalk bias is a pro-tanto consideration indicating that we're too pessimistic about future disasters (perhaps especially slow-moving ones). I'm not claiming that we never sleepwalk into a disaster. Indeed, there might be stronger countervailing considerations, which if true would mean that all things considered we are too optimistic about existential risk.