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Dagon comments on Counterfactual Mugging Alternative - Less Wrong
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I'm with gjm. I appreciate the attempt, but neither added weirdness (time travel nor prophetic causality) would meet your criterion of not contrived and easy to understand.
Actually, I still stand by the "not contrived" part. (I think that's what drove me to believe it would be easy to understand.) The idea arose organically when I was thinking about what I would do if presented a prophecy like this, and whether it would be worth expending effort to fight it. On the other hand, there's no reason for Omega to play his game with you other than specifically to illustrate the point of CM.