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entirelyuseless comments on Counterfactual Mugging Alternative - Less Wrong
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I would pay Omega in the counterfactual mugging, but I would not pay here.
The reason is that in the counterfactual mugging case, I would want to be the sort of person who pays when they get offered a deal like that.
Here, I would not want to be the sort of person who pays to fight an infallible prophecy.
However, I would want to be the sort of person who pays to fight a non-infallible prophecy, so I would be happy to precommit to pay in non-infallible prophecy situations.
The kind of person who pays to fight an infallible prophecy is the same kind of person to whom infallible prophecies are given 50% less often. In this case.