Brillyant comments on Open thread, Jul. 11 - Jul. 17, 2016 - Less Wrong

4 Post author: MrMind 11 July 2016 07:09AM

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Comment author: MrMind 18 July 2016 07:55:44AM 0 points [-]

Nobody should have much confidence in such predictions

If your model doesn't even get to 10%, then I say: unless you have hundreds of competing models in your mind (who has?), then do not even bother.
Your comment helped me reach the conclusion that reading AoE would be a waste of time.