Moat-and-bailey. I don't think there was a suggestion in the above post that you meant with probability something that doesn't follow Kolmogorov's axioms and where you can't directly apply Bayes rule. Especially on LW I think it's valuable to call things that don't follow those axioms and therefore aren't what's usually meant with 'probability', 'probability'.
Okay.
My point was only that there is a spectrum. Some beliefs are anticipatory (i.e. people actually believe them) and others are just associations (i.e. people don't believe them, but they find the idea of saying they believe in them to be so important they swear up and down they believe in them)...
But most beliefs are somewhere in the grey middle, with people assigning a "gut feeling probability" to each belief, without doing any math.
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
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