- Is Eve irrational?
- Can believing an unfalsifyable believe be rational?
- Can this argument be extended to believe in God?
I think you're focusing too much on the label "rational", and not enough on the actual effect of beliefs.
I'll admit I'm closer to logical positivism than is Eliezer, but even if you make the argument (which you haven't) that the model of the universe is simpler (in the Kolmogorov complexity sense) by believing Adam killed Able, it's still not important. Unless you're making predictions and taking actions based on a belief (or on beliefs influenced by that belief), it's neither rational nor irrational, it's irrelevant.
Now, a somewhat more complicated example, where Eve has to judge Cain's likelihood of murdering her, and thinks the circumstances of the locked room in the past are relevant to her future, there are definite predictions she should be making. Her confidence in Adam's innocence implies Cain's guilt, and she should be concerned.
It's still the case that she cannot possibly have enough evidence for her confidence to be 1.00.
Thank you, that was a very nice extension to the story. I should have included the scenario to make her belief relevant. I agree with you, assigning 100% probability is irrational in her case. But, if she is not rationally literate enough to express herself in fuzzy, non-binary way, I think she would maintain rationality through saying "Ceteris paribus, I prefer to be not locked in the same room with Cain because I believe he is a murder because I believe Adam was innocent" (ignoring ad hominem)
I was under the impression that the golden standard for rationality is falsifiability. However, I now understand that Eve is rational despite unfalsifiablity, because she remained Bayesian.