turchin comments on Open thread, Jul. 25 - Jul. 31, 2016 - Less Wrong

3 Post author: MrMind 25 July 2016 07:07AM

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Comment author: turchin 27 July 2016 10:13:53AM *  1 point [-]

In a comment to my map of biases in x-risks research I got suggestion to add collective biases, so I tried to make their preliminary list and would welcome any suggestions:

"Some biases result from collective behaviour of group of peoples, so that each person seems to be rational but the result is irrational or suboptimal.

Well-known examples are tragedy of the commons, prisoners dilemma and other non optimal Nash equilibriums.

Different form of natural selection may result in such group behaviour, for example psychopaths may easily reach higher status.

It all affects discovery and management of x-risks. Here I will try to list some of such biases in two most important fields: science and management of x-risks.

Collective biases in the field of global risks research

Publication bias

Different schools of thought

It is impossible to read everything – important points are not read

Fraud

Fight for priority

No objective measure of truth in field of x-risks

Betting on small probabilities is impossible

Different languages

Not everything is published

Paywalls

Commercialization

Arrogance of billionaires

Generations problem: young ones like novelty but lack knowledge, old ones are too conservative

Funding, grants and academic position fight

Memes

Authoritative scientists and their opinions

Personal animosity and rivalry

Cooperation as law status signaling

Collective biases and obstacles in the management of risks

Earlier problems have higher priority

Politics and fight for power

Political believes (left and right)

Believes as group membership signs

Religions

Many actors problem (many countries)

Election cycles

Lies and false promises

Corruption

Wars

Communication problems in decision chains

Failure of the ability to predict the future