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Mac comments on Open thread, Jul. 25 - Jul. 31, 2016 - Less Wrong
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If you are not a Boltzmann Brain, then sentience produced by evolution or simulation is likely more common than sentience produced by random quantum fluctuations.
If sentience produced by evolution or simulation is more common than sentience produced by random quantum fluctuations, and given an enormous universe available as simulation or alien resources, then the amount of sentient aliens or simulations is high.
Therefore, P(Sentient Aliens or Simulation) and P(You are a Boltzmann Brain) move in opposite directions when updated with new evidence. As SETI continues to come up empty, the possibility that you are a floating brain in space is increasingly likely, all else equal.
Are these statements logical? Criticism and suggestions welcome.
If those are the only two possibilities then of course they do. A complete set of probabilities must sum to 1 and so P(Aliens) is simply (1 - P(Bolzmann)).