Lumifer comments on Open thread, Jul. 25 - Jul. 31, 2016 - Less Wrong

3 Post author: MrMind 25 July 2016 07:07AM

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Comment author: Lumifer 29 July 2016 02:59:32PM 0 points [-]

Therefore, P(Sentient Aliens or Simulation) and P(You are a Boltzmann Brain) move in opposite directions when updated with new evidence.

If those are the only two possibilities then of course they do. A complete set of probabilities must sum to 1 and so P(Aliens) is simply (1 - P(Bolzmann)).