Tedlock lays out a bunch of principles to come to correct conclusions. One of the principles is being a fox that uses multiple chains instead of trying to use one correct chain that rests on a foundation based on which other beliefs can be logically deduced.
The paradigm that Arielgenesis proposes is to follow a hedgehog system where a single chain of logic can be relied on because certain basic presuppositions are accepted as true.
But that implies that their claims are tested or testable and that implies some basic presumptions of logic or empricism.
Holding a belief because of a chain of logic has little to do with the principle of empricism.
Neither do bad forecasters, or cranks, or schizophrenics.
There are many ways to do bad forecasts. As far as the examples of cranks and schizophrenics go, those are usually hedgehogs. A lot of cranks usually follow a chain of logic. If you take people who think there are illegal tricks to avoid paying income tax, they usually have elaborate chains of logic to back up their case.
The suppressed premiss here is that superforcasters are right or reliable.
How do you know that I hold my belief based on a "suppresed premiss"? If something is supressed and you can't see it, maybe the structure of my reasoning process isn't the structure you guess.
Tedlock lays out a bunch of principles to come to correct conclusions. One of the principles is being a fox that uses multiple chains instead of trying to use one correct chain that rests on a foundation based on which other beliefs can be logically deduced.
Missing the point. The point is how their conclusions are verified.
Holding a belief because of a chain of logic has little to do with the principle of empricism.
Logic is implicit in empricisicm because the idea that contradictions are false is implicit in the idea of disproof by contradictory ev...
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