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turchin comments on The map of the risks of aliens - Less Wrong

7 Post author: turchin 22 August 2016 07:05PM

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Comment author: turchin 22 August 2016 08:01:46PM 3 points [-]

Really interesting turn. As I understand you mean that in some universes UFAI will eat almost all matter quickly, and there will be not much other earth-like civilization, but in other universes with late non-AI filter there will be more instances of earth-like civilizations.

So, if yes, what could be such filter? It should be a property of the universe it self, not a civilization, so probably it should be some think like black hole catastrophe in hadron collider? (It also should be local, not the false vacuum transition for the same reasons). Or simple runaway global warming? But it is not universal enough.

Comment author: James_Miller 22 August 2016 09:29:35PM 3 points [-]

Yes, this is what I mean. Part of what makes it an effective filter might be that it's hard to detect. If it's a "black hole catastrophe in hadron collider" then its technologically much easier to build the collider than to realize that the collider will create a black hole. I've suggested that this kind of possibility should cause us to put lots of resources into looking for the ruins of dead alien civilizations.

Comment author: turchin 22 August 2016 09:45:32PM 2 points [-]

The one possible way to argue against this grim perspective is to suggest that probability is distorted by simulation argument. If at least one super AI will be created it will create millions of simulations (to numerically solve Fermi paradox, e.g.) and it will overweight the number of real civilization. But will it save them from the said black hole?

Comment author: James_Miller 23 August 2016 12:55:41AM 1 point [-]

Then the Fermi simulation paradox is "why is the universe so old?" If the universe gets quickly colonized then most of the simulations of civilizations that have not yet made contact with aliens will have universes much younger than ours.

Comment author: turchin 23 August 2016 02:25:59AM 1 point [-]

They could put arbitrary timelines in the simulations. The fact that we see really old universe is an argument against future colonization by many species.

Comment author: Prometheus 27 August 2016 05:15:12AM 0 points [-]

It could be the universe is only "old" by our standards. Maybe a few trillion years is a very young universe by normal standards, and it's only because we've been observing a simulation that it seems to be an "old" universe.

Comment author: James_Miller 27 August 2016 06:02:31AM 0 points [-]

This is certainly possible. But if we are in a simulation of the base universe then it's strange that we experience the Fermi paradox given the universe's apparent age.