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John_Maxwell_IV comments on CFAR’s new focus, and AI Safety - Less Wrong

30 Post author: AnnaSalamon 03 December 2016 06:09PM

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Comment author: John_Maxwell_IV 08 December 2016 02:17:16AM *  2 points [-]

OK, so I told you the other day that I find you a difficult person to have discussions with. I think I might find your comments less frustrating if you made an effort to think of things I would say in response to your points, and then wrote in anticipation of those things. If you're interested in trying this, I converted all my responses using rot13 so you can try to guess what they will be before reading them.

Oh yes. For example, Physical Review Letters is mostly interested in the former, while HuffPo -- in the latter.

UhssCb vf gelvat gb znkvzvmr nq erirahr ol jevgvat negvpyrf gung nccrny gb gur fbeg bs crbcyr jub pyvpx ba nqf. Gur rkvfgrapr bs pyvpxonvg gryyf hf onfvpnyyl abguvat nobhg ubj hfrshy vg jbhyq or sbe lbhe nirentr Yrff Jebatre gb fcraq zber gvzr trarengvat ulcbgurfrf. Vg'f na nethzrag ol nanybtl, naq gur nanybtl vf dhvgr ybbfr.

V jbhyq thrff Culfvpny Erivrj Yrggref cevbevgvmrf cncref gung unir vagrerfgvat naq abiry erfhygf bire cncref gung grfg naq pbasvez rkvfgvat gurbevrf va jnlf gung nera'g vagrerfgvat. Shegurezber, V fhfcrpg gung gur orfg culfvpvfgf gel gb qb erfrnepu gung'f vagrerfgvat, naq crre erivrj npgf nf n zber gehgu-sbphfrq svygre nsgrejneqf.

That's not true because you must also evaluate all these hypotheses and that's costly. For a trivial example, given a question X, would you find it easier to identify a correct hypothesis if I presented you with five candidates or with five million candidates?

Gur nafjre gb lbhe dhrfgvba vf gung V jbhyq cersre svir zvyyvba pnaqvqngrf. Vs svir ulcbgurfrf jrer nyy V unq gvzr gb rinyhngr, V pbhyq fvzcyl qvfpneq rirelguvat nsgre gur svefg svir.

Ohg ulcbgurfvf rinyhngvba unccraf va fgntrf. Gur vavgvny fgntr vf n onfvp cynhfvovyvgl purpx juvpu pna unccra va whfg n srj frpbaqf. Vs n ulcbgurfvf znxrf vg cnfg gung fgntr, lbh pna vairfg zber rssbeg va grfgvat vg. Jvgu n ynetre ahzore bs ulcbgurfrf, V pna or zber fryrpgvir nobhg juvpu barf tb gb gur evtbebhf grfgvat fgntr, naq erfgevpg vg gb ulcbgurfrf gung ner rvgure uvtuyl cynhfvoyr naq/be ulcbgurfvf gung jbhyq pnhfr zr gb hcqngr n ybg vs gurl jrer gehr.

Gurer frrzf gb or cerggl jvqrfcernq nterrzrag gung YJ ynpxf pbagrag. Jr qba'g frrz gb unir gur ceboyrz bs gbb znal vagrerfgvat ulcbgurfrf.

I would like to suggest attaching less self-worth and less status to ideas you throw out. Accept that it's fine that most of them will be shot down.

I don't like the kindergarten alternative: Oh, little Johnny said something stupid, like he usually does! He is such a creative child! Here is a gold star!

V pvgrq fbzrbar V pbafvqre na rkcreg ba gur gbcvp bs perngvivgl, Vfnnp Nfvzbi, ba gur fbeg bs raivebazrag gung ur guvaxf jbexf orfg sbe vg. Ner gurer ernfbaf jr fubhyq pbafvqre lbh zber xabjyrqtrnoyr guna Nfvzbi ba guvf gbcvp? (Qvq lbh gnxr gur gvzr gb ernq Nfvzbi'f rffnl?)

Urer'f nabgure rkcreg ba gur gbcvp bs perngvivgl: uggcf://ivzrb.pbz/89936101

V frr n ybg bs nterrzrag jvgu Nfvzbi urer. Lbhe xvaqretnegra nanybtl zvtug or zber ncg guna lbh ernyvmr--V guvax zbfg crbcyr ner ng gurve zbfg perngvir jura gurl ner srryvat cynlshy.


Lbh unir rvtugrra gubhfnaq xnezn ba Yrff Jebat. Naq lrg lbh unira'g fhozvggrq nalguvat ng nyy gb Qvfphffvba be Znva. Lbh'er abg gur bayl bar--gur infg znwbevgl bs Yrff Jebat hfref nibvq znxvat gbc-yriry fhozvffvbaf. Jul vf gung? Gurer vf jvqrfcernq nterrzrag gung YJ fhssref sebz n qrsvpvg bs pbagrag. V fhttrfg perngvat n srj gbc-yriry cbfgf lbhefrys orsber gnxvat lbhe bja bcvavba ba gurfr gbcvpf frevbhfyl.

Comment author: Lumifer 09 December 2016 03:53:23PM *  0 points [-]

I told you the other day that I find you a difficult person to have discussions with

Yes. This is unfortunate, but I cannot help you here.

if you made an effort to think of things I would say in response to your points, and then wrote in anticipation of those things

I think it's a bad idea. I can't anticipate your responses well enough (in other words, I don't have a good model of you) -- for example, I did not expect you to take five million candidate hypotheses. And if I want to have a conversation with myself, why, there is no reason to involve you in the process.

The existence of clickbait tells us basically nothing about how useful it would be for your average Less Wronger to spend more time generating hypotheses.

We didn't get to an average Lesswronger generating hypotheses yet. You've introduced a new term -- "interestingness" and set it in opposition to truth (or should it have been truthiness?) As far as I can see, clickbait is just a subtype of "interestingness" -- and if you want to optimize for "interestingness", you would tend to end up with clickbait of some sort. And I'm not quite sure what does it have to do with the propensity to generate hypotheses.

If five hypotheses were all I had time to evaluate, I could simply discard everything after the first five.

If a correct hypothesis was guaranteed to be included in your set, you would discard the true one in 99.9999% of the cases, then.

The initial stage is a basic plausibility check which can happen in just a few seconds.

Let's try it. "Earth rotates around the Sun" -- ha-ha, what do I look like, an idiot? Implausible. Next!

...Isaac Asimov, on the sort of environment that he thinks works best for it.

Where "it" is "writing fiction"?

Your kindergarten analogy might be more apt than you realize--I think most people are at their most creative when they are feeling playful.

LOL. Kids are naturally playful -- the don't need a kindergarten for it. In fact, kindergartens tend to use their best efforts to shut down kids creativity and make them "less disruptive", "respectful", "calm", and all the things required of a docile shee... err... member of society.

I suggest creating a few top-level posts yourself before taking your own opinion on these topics seriously.

I neither see much reason to do so, nor do I take my own opinion seriously, anyway :-P

Do you want playfulness or seriousness? Pick a side.

Comment author: John_Maxwell_IV 10 December 2016 01:51:50AM *  2 points [-]

I told you the other day that I find you a difficult person to have discussions with

Yes. This is unfortunate, but I cannot help you here.

Is this due to lack of ability or lack of desire? If lack of ability, why do you think you lack this ability?

Comment author: Lumifer 10 December 2016 05:24:49AM 0 points [-]

I lack the ability to change you and I lack the desire to change myself.