Prediction: Government regulations greatly reduce economic growth. Trump, with the help of the Republican Congress, is going to significantly cut regulations and this is going to supercharge economic growth allowing Trump to win reelection in a true landslide.
Do you want to put a probability on that? Also, break it down into a bunch of steps. Be precise. Include timelines.
Has anything like that every happened in the entire history of the world? In four years? For example, most of what Reagan is credited with doing to the economy was either done by Carter or in Reagan's second term.
Why do you believe that federal regulations are a significant portion of the total?
Has anything like that every happened in the entire history of the world
Yes, China after Mao.
It might not just be federal regulations. For example, if Republicans passed a freedom to build law that allowed landowners to quickly get permission to build we would see a massive construction boom.
Derek Parfit (author of "Reasons and Persons", a very influential work of analytic philosophy much of which is concerned with questions of personal identity and which comes up with decidedly LW-ish answers to most of its questions) has died. (He actually died a few weeks ago, but I only just heard of it, and I haven't seen his death mentioned on LW.)
A few years ago I used to be a hothead. Whenever anyone said anything, I’d think of a way to disagree. I’d push back hard if something didn’t fit my world-view.
It’s like I had to be first with an opinion – as if being first meant something. But what it really meant was that I wasn’t thinking hard enough about the problem. The faster you react, the less you think. Not always, but often.
Hi everyone,
I'm a PhD candidate at Cornell, where I work on logic and philosophy of science. I learned about Less Wrong from Slate Star Codex and someone I used to date told me she really liked it. I recently started a blog where I plan to post my thoughts about random topics: http://necpluribusimpar.net. For instance, I wrote a post (http://necpluribusimpar.net/slavery-and-capitalism/) against the widely held but false belief that much of the US wealth derives from slavery and that without slavery the industrial revolution wouldn't have happened, as well ...
How do you weight the opinion of people whose arguments you do not accept? Say you have 10 friends who all believe with 99% confidence in proposition A. You ask them why they believe A, and the arguments they produce seem completely bogus or incoherent to you. But perhaps they have strong intuitive or aesthetic reasons to believe A, which they simply cannot articulate. Should you update in favor of A or not?
I'm curious if anybody here frequents retraction watch enough to address this concern I have.
I find articles here very effective at announcing retractions and making testimonies from lead figures in investigations a frequent fallback, but rarely do you get to see the nuts and bolts of the investigations being discussed. For example, "How were the journals misleading?" or "What evidence was or was not analyzed, and how did the journal's analysis deviate from correct protocol?" are questions I often ask myself as I read, followed by an ur...
In a crack of time between doing my last data analysis for my PhD and writing my thesis, I couldn't stop myself from churning out a brief sparsely-sourced astrobiology blog post in which I argue that the limited lifespan of planetary geospheres and the decay of star formation rates means that even though the vast majority of star-years are in the distant future around long-lived small stars, we are still a typical observer in that we are occurring less than 15 billion years into an apparently open-ended universe.
https://thegreatatuin.wordpress.com/2017/01/29/on-the-death-of-planets/
I think either you're misunderstanding the paper, or I'm misunderstanding you. (Or of course both.) The point isn't that scientists should be looking at consensus instead of actually doing science; of course they shouldn't. It's that for someone who isn't an expert in the field and isn't in a position to do their own research, the opinions of those who are experts and have done their own research are very useful information. (In cases -- such as this one -- where there is near unanimity among the experts, I think the only reasonable options are "accep...
I'm new to writing resumes and am currently writing one for an internship application. I don't know if trying to optimize for uniqueness or quirkiness comes at significant social costs, or if there are many benefits. If anyone is good at this sort of thing (listing / bragging skills), general tips would be very welcome.
Several state attorneys general have initiated them.
Could you give some examples? I'm failing to find any instances where any such action has actually been brought.
What I can find is an investigation by several state AGs into ExxonMobil, which appears to be focusing on what EM's management knew about climate change; there's some suggestion that they're now digging into possible misrepresentations of how big oil reserves are, presumably with a view to arguing that they misled investors. Note that investigating what Exxon management knew about climate cha...
OK, and how is this distinction supposed to manifest in practice?
One distinction is that someone accused under (2) could defend themselves by showing that they genuinely didn't believe anyone was paying attention to their expression of disbelief in global warming, whereas that defence presumably wouldn't be open to them under (1).
[..] in any case when (2) happens who exactly will be forbidden to assert that global worming isn't real? Does it matter if [...]?
Since it suffices to give one operationalizable difference between (1) & (2) for gjm's cl...
Catholic theologians are experts in what the Roman Catholic Church believes. If you claim that the RCC isn't really trinitarian, then "bullshit, look at what all the Catholic theologians say" is a perfectly good response.
They claim (or at least let's suppose arguendo that they do) to be experts on the actual facts about God. It turns out they're wrong about that. So ... is their situation nicely parallel to that of climate scientists?
Why, no. Look at all the people in the world who claim to be God-experts and have studied long and hard, got fancy...
Suggestion to sticky the welcome thread. Stickying the welcome thread to the sidebar would encourage participation/comments/content. And perhaps in the future add emphasis on communication norms to the thread, specifically that negative reception and/or lack of reception is more obvious on LessWrong – So have thick skin and do not take it personal. I'd imagine that quality control will be what it has always been, critical comments.
I have just read a debate about whether high-IQ kids should be allowed to attend special schools, and the debate was predictable. So I used this as an opportunity to summarize the arguments against "smart segregation". (The arguments in favor of it seem quite straightforward: better education, less bullying, social and professional company of equals.) Here are the results; please tell me if some frequently-made argument is missing.
Note: different arguments here contradict each other, which is okay, because they are typically not made by the same ...
Thoughts on punching nazis? I can't really wrap my head around why there are so many people who think it's 100% ok to punch nazis. Not sure if discussion about this has happened elsewhere (if so please direct me!) . For the purposes of this discussion let's ignore whether or not the alt-right counts as Nazism and speak only about a hypothetical Nazi ideological group.
I understand to some extent the argument that reasonable discussion with Nazis is almost certainly futile and that they are perhaps a danger to others, however my main concerns with punching ...
some clothing, e.g., high heels, is rather impractical
I beg to disagree. To speak of practicality you need to have a specific goal in mind. High heels are very impractical for running, but they are quite practical for attracting the attention of a potential mate.
Do continue trying to put words into my mouth. That's absolutely going to convince me that it's worth responding to you with good arguments.
Note that the people doing the prosecution haven't presented any evidence of "promulgation of assertions that global warming isn't real in order to gain an unfair competitive advantage in a marketplace" beyond the fact that the people in question are asserting that global warming isn't real.
Are there in fact any such prosecutions yet? (I don't think there are, but maybe there are and I missed them.)
Does it matter if they believe it is in fact not real, does it matter if they have evidence?
Yes, because the proposed prosecutions are under la...
I think that "tribal bias" is the norm, not the exception, and accusing someone of having their reasoning messed with, to some extent, by tribal biases is a little like accusing them of having shit that stinks. I'd much rather hold off and only criticize people when they deal with visible bias poorly, and It's legitimately hard enough to see your own tribal biases and how they affect your thinking that I'm a little hesitant to accuse someone of being blatantly dishonest because they don't see and correct for what looks like a bias to me. Especial...
I upvoted you because I think your explanation of Lumifer's point there is correct and needed to be said.
However, I'd like to comment on this bit:
Given that gjm has just demonstrated that (3) is false, I'm inclined to believe the real reason for your bias is that you belong to a tribe where agreeing with gjm's conclusion is high status.
I don't think this is fair to take away gjm's entire reputation based on one disagreement or even one confirmed counterexample.
I also think it's premature to conclude that satt is biased here due to tribal beliefs, beca...
We have satellite temperature data since the late 70s. Before that, yes, there is opportunity for shenanigans.
Economic growth basically means that workers get more productive. Less hours of work means more output. GDP growth is not really possible without making workers more efficient.
It's interesting how in the last years the old luddie arguments got revived. The idea that automation means that there won't be any jobs anymore get's more and more popular.
Does anyone have an electronic copy of the Oxford Handbook of Metamemory that they're willing to share?
Are there any forums explicitly about how to think about and act to best make humanity survive its future?
Our consensus is pretty unalterably "Build an AI God".
Kinda. The LW's position is "We will make a God, how do we make sure He likes us?"
(comment split because it got too long)
I am greatly saddened, and somewhat puzzled, that you apparently think I might think the answer is no. (Actually, I don't think you think I might think the answer is no; I think you are grandstanding.)
It’s neither. I have a hard time imagining that you could say no. I was just making sure to cover all the bases because I also have a hard time imagining that you could still say that I’m actively trying to claim anything after I’ve addressed that a couple times.
I bring it up because at this point, I’m not sure how you can simultaneously hold the views “he can believe whatever he wants”, “he hasn’t done anything in addition that suggests judgement too” (which I get that you haven’t yet agreed to, but you haven’t addressed my arguments that I haven’t yet either), and then accuse me of trying to claim the intellectual high ground without cognitive dissonance. I’m giving you a chance to either teach me something new (i.e. “how gjm can simultaneously hold these views congruently”), or, in the case that you can’t, the chance for you to realize it.
The bit about "being seen as rude" was not intended as a statement of your views or of your argument; it was part of my initial sketch of the class of situations to which those views and that argument apply. The point at which I start sketching what I think you were saying is where I say "Your principal point is, in these terms, ...".
Quoting you, “Your principal point is, in these terms, that [...] and that "externally" #2 is something of a hostile act if in fact B doesn't share A's opinion because it means that B has to choose between acquiescing while A talks as if everyone knows that P, or else making a fuss and disagreeing and quite possibly being seen as rude.” (emphasis mine)
That looks like it’s intended to be a description of my views to me, given that it directly follows the point where you start sketching out what my views are, following a “because”, and before the first period.
Even if it’s not, though, if you’re saying it as part of a sketch of the situation, it’s one that anyone who sees things the way I do can see that I won’t find it to be a relevant part of the situation, and the fact that you mention it - even if it were just part of that sketch - indicates that either you’re missing this or that you see that you’re giving a sketch that I don’t agree with as if my disagreement is irrelevant.
Well, I was (deliberately) attempting to describe what I took to be your position on the general issue, rather than on what the authors of the article might or might not have done.
Right. I think it is the correct approach to describe my position in general. However, the piece of my general position that would come into play in this specific instance was not present so if you apply those views as stated, of course you wouldn’t have a problem with what the authors have done in this specific instance.
(I am not all that interested in what you think they have done, since you've said you haven't actually looked at the article.)
I am also not interested in what (I think) they have done in the article. I have said this already, but I’ll agree again if you’d like. You’re right to not be interested in this.
I don't suppose you'd like to explain what it is that I've missed?
Honestly, I would love to. I don’t think I’m capable of explaining it to you as of where we stand right now. Other people, yes. Once we get to the bottom of our disagreement, yes. Not until then though.
This conversation has been fascinating to me, but it has also been a bit fatiguing to make the same points and not see them addressed. I’m not sure we’ll make it that far, but it’d be awesome if we do.
notice in particular that I explicitly said that I think your position probably isn't the one that "on the face of it you've suggested".
Yes, I noticed that qualification and agree. On the face of it, it certainly does look that way. That’s what I meant by “a very understandable reading”.
However, the preceding line is “You've made it explicitly that you're not claiming that external #2 is always a bad idea”, and that is not true. I said “A small minority of the times I wont [...]”, and what follows is not explicitly “external #2”. I can see how you would group what follows with “external #2”, but I do not. This is what I mean when I say that I predict you will assume that you’re understanding what I’m saying when you do not.
As to the other things you've said (e.g., asking whether and where and why I disagree with your position), I would prefer to let that wait until you have helped me fix whatever errors you have discerned in my understanding of your position and your argument.
This seems backwards to me. Again, with the double cruxing, you have to agree on F before you can agree on E before you can agree on D before you can even think about agreeing on the original topic. This reads to me like you saying you want me to explain why we disagree on B before you address C.
Having gone to the trouble of laying it out, it seems like it would be a waste not to do that, don't you think?
Not necessarily. I think it’s perfectly fine to be uninterested in helping you fix the errors I discern in the understanding of my argument, unless I had already gone out of my way to give you reason to believe I would if you layed out your understanding for me. Especially if I don’t think you’ll be completely charitable.
I haven’t gone out of my way to give you reason to believe I would, since I wasn’t sure at the time, but I’ll state my stance explicitly now. This conversation has been fascinating to me. It has also been a bit fatiguing, and I’m unsure of how long I want to continue this. To the extent that it actually seems we can come to the bottom of our disagreement, I am interested in continuing. If we get to the point where you’re interested in hearing it and I think it will be fruitful, I will try to explain the difference between my view and your attempt to describe them.
As I see it now, we can’t get there until I understand why you treat what I see as “privately holding my beliefs, and not working to hide them from (possibly fallacious) inference” as if it is “actively presupposing that my beliefs are correct, and judging anyone who disagrees as ‘below me’”. I also don’t think we can get there until we can agree on a few other things that I’ve brought up and haven’t seen addressed.
Either way, thanks for the in depth engagement. I do appreciate it.
On "being seen as rude": I beg your pardon, I was misremembering exactly what I had written at each point. However, I still can't escape the feeling that you are either misunderstanding or (less likely) being deliberately obscure, because what you actually say about this seems to me to assume that I was presenting "being seen as rude" as a drawback of doing what I called "external #2", whereas what I was actually saying is that one problem with "external #2" is that it forces someone who disagrees to do something tha...
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post, then it goes here.
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