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Alicorn comments on Probability is in the Mind - Less Wrong

60 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 12 March 2008 04:08AM

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Comment author: Alicorn 06 May 2011 06:18:52PM 3 points [-]

It is not necessary to know the exact bias to enact the following reasoning:

"Coins can be rigged to display one face more than the other. If this coin is rigged in this way, then the face I have seen is more likely than the other to be the favored side. If the coin is not rigged in this way, it is probably fair, in which case the side I saw last time is equally likely to come up next by chance. It is therefore a better bet to expect a repeat."

Key phrase: judgment under uncertainty.

Comment author: matteri 06 May 2011 06:24:53PM -1 points [-]

I am not arguing against betting on the side that showed up in the first toss. What is interesting though is that even under those strict conditions, if you don't know the bias beforehand, you never will. Considering this; how could anyone ever argue that there are known probabilities in the world where no such strict conditions apply?

Comment author: Alicorn 06 May 2011 06:30:09PM 0 points [-]
Comment author: matteri 06 May 2011 06:43:23PM 0 points [-]

Very well, I could have phrased it in a better way. Let me try again; and let's hope I am not mistaken.

Considering that even if there is such a thing as an objective probability, it can be shown that such information is impossible to acquire (impossible to falsify); how could it be anything but religion to believe in such a thing?

Comment author: Alicorn 06 May 2011 06:47:42PM 0 points [-]