Less Wrong is a community blog devoted to refining the art of human rationality. Please visit our About page for more information.

Omegaile comments on Probability is in the Mind - Less Wrong

60 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 12 March 2008 04:08AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (186)

Sort By: Old

You are viewing a single comment's thread.

Comment author: Omegaile 05 August 2012 01:01:27AM *  1 point [-]

I used to be a frequentist, and say that the probability of the unfair coin landing heads is either 4/5 or 1/5, but I don't know exactly which. But that is not to say that I saw probabilities on things instead of on information. I'll explain.

If someone asked me if it will it rains tomorrow, I would ask which information am I supposed to use? If it rained in the past few days? Or would I consider tomorrow as a random day and pick the frequency of rainy days in the year? Or maybe I should consider the season we are in. Or am I supposed to use all available information I have? The latter I would call subjective probability. If someone instead passed me the children problem I would say 1/3 because this problem implicitly tells me to consider only the what tells the enunciate.

But simply asking for the probability without a context, I would say either that this is a no question, i.e. that the enunciate is imprecise and lacking information, or I would believe that the interrogator was asking for a intrinsic probability, in which case I would say either 0 or 1, but I don't know which.

But I did believe in intrinsic probability, in some cases, like quantum mechanics.

This view of mine became hollow after I started inquiring myself about this intrinsic probability. Even if such a thing existed, it couldn't be differentiated from what I called subjective probability. By Occam's razor I shouldn't create 2 kinds of probabilities that I cannot tell apart. This thought was partly inspired by reading lesswrong, not a particular post, but by seeing the ease in which what I called subjective probability was used in several occasions.