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TheOtherDave comments on Probability is in the Mind - Less Wrong

60 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 12 March 2008 04:08AM

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Comment author: TheOtherDave 24 May 2013 07:04:08PM 1 point [-]

Blech; you're right, I incompletely transitioned from an earlier formulation and didn't shift signs all the way through. I think I fixed it now.

Your larger point about (p1 and p2) being just as plausible a priori is certainly true, and you're right that makes "and consequently low probabilities to P1 and P2" not follow from a properly constructed version of P3.

I'm not sure that makes a difference, though perhaps it does. It still seems that P(P1) > P(P2) is no more likely, given complete ignorance of the referent for "bamboozle", than P(P1) < P(P2)... and it still seems that knowing that otherwise sane people talk about whether monitors are bamboozled or not quickly makes me confident that P(P1 XOR P2) >> P((P1 AND P2) OR NOT(P1 OR P2))... though perhaps it ought not do so.