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nikAleksandr comments on Probability is in the Mind - Less Wrong

60 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 12 March 2008 04:08AM

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Comment author: nikAleksandr 25 April 2014 09:02:25PM 1 point [-]

This was a very difficult concept for me, Eliezer. Not because I disagree with the Bayesian principle that uncertainty is in the mind, but because I lacked the inferential step to jump from that to why there were different probabilities depending on the question you asked.

Might a better (or additional) way to explain this be to point out an analogy to the differing probabilities of truth you might assign to confirmed experimental hypothesis that were either originally vague, and therefore have less weight when adjusting the overall probability of truth vs. specific, and therefore shift the probability of truth further.

Hopefully I'm actually understanding this correctly at all.