I have to say that it sure does seem like there ought to be some way to use the notion of frequentist probability to construct subjective probability along these lines.

Assign a measure to each possible world (the prior probabilities). For some state of knowledge K, some set of worlds Ck is consistent with K (say, the set in which there is a brain containing K). For some proposition X, X is true in some set of worlds Cx. The subjective probability P(X|K) = measure(intersection(Ck,Cx)) / measure(Ck). Bayesian updating is equivalent to removing worlds from K. To make it purely frequentist, give each world measure 1 and use multisets.

## Comments (186)

OldI have to say that it sure does seem like there ought to be some way to use the notion of frequentist probability to construct subjective probability along these lines.Assign a measure to each possible world (the prior probabilities). For some state of knowledge K, some set of worlds Ck is consistent with K (say, the set in which there is a brain containing K). For some proposition X, X is true in some set of worlds Cx. The subjective probability P(X|K) = measure(intersection(Ck,Cx)) / measure(Ck). Bayesian updating is equivalent to removing worlds from K. To make it purely frequentist, give each world measure 1 and use multisets.

Does that work?