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Cyan2 comments on Probability is in the Mind - Less Wrong

60 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 12 March 2008 04:08AM

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Comment author: Cyan2 12 March 2008 09:58:22PM 0 points [-]

What about when you're dealing with a medication that might kill someone, or not: in the absence of any information, do you say that's 50-50?

You've already given me information by using the word medication -- implicity, you're asking me to recall what I know about medications before I render an answer. So no, those outcomes aren't *necessarily* equally plausible to me. Here's a situation which is a much better approximation(!) of total absence of information: either event Q or event J has happened just now, and I will tell you which in my next comment. The asymmetry in your information is just that I chose the label Q for the first event and J for the second event. Which event do you find more plausible? I'd like you to justify your choice, pretending (if necessary) that I am honest in this instance.