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Will_Pearson comments on Probability is in the Mind - Less Wrong

60 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 12 March 2008 04:08AM

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Comment author: Will_Pearson 13 March 2008 01:04:45PM 0 points [-]

Rolf Nelson: "Follow-up question: If Bob believes he has a >50% chance of winning the lottery tomorrow, is his belief objectively wrong? I would tentatively propose that his belief is unfounded, "unattached to reality", unwise, and unreasonable, but that it's not useful to consider his belief "objectively wrong"."

It all depends on what information Bob has. He might have carefully doctored the machines and general setup of the lottery draw to an extent that he might have enough information to have that probability. Now if Bob says he thinks he has a greater than 50% chance of winning the lottery because he is feeling lucky, and that is it, you can probably say that is unattached to reality or ignoring lots of relevant information.