"Finally this sequence of posts is beginning to build to its hysterical climax. It might be difficult to convince us that doomsday probability calculations are more than swag-based-Bayesianism, but the effort will probably be entertaining."

Hmm. I've seen little to indicate that this is going to end up being a discussion of the Doomsday Argument. Still, it would be interesting to see Eliezer's own view. Everyone seems to have their own opinion as to why its unsound (and I agree that it's unsound, for my own reasons...)

The last paragraph though is relevant to the view that nanotechnology or AI are potentially dangerous; a view we might want to accept without first creating the technologies 1000 times and seeing what percentage of the time life on Earth is wiped out. But I don't think this idea hinges on the DA.