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Capla comments on Competent Elites - Less Wrong
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The smarter you are, the more likely you are to think you're the exception, and neglect the outside view.
I'd say the smarter you think you are, the more likely you are to think you're the exception. I'd say that saying that IQ positively correlates with overconfidence is a much stronger claim than saying that the overconfidence effect exists.
That curve got to bend at some point -- if you're very very very smart you should realize this and adjust for it.