Anna, I haven't assigned probabilities to those events. I am merely comparing Eliezer to various other people I know who are interested in AGI. Eliezer seems to think that the most important measure of his ability, given his purpose, is his intelligence. He scores highly on that. I think the appropriate measure is something more like [intelligence * precision / (self-estimate of precision)], and I think he scores low on that relative to other people on my list.