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Vaniver comments on Awww, a Zebra - Less Wrong

23 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 01 October 2008 01:28AM

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Comment author: Vaniver 21 May 2014 08:50:24PM 1 point [-]

To do better you'll need additional information we don't have (eg at the moment, no one can sequence a genome and extract an accurate predicted intelligence).

Actually, we could get some information that would help here- IQ up the ancestral tree. The correlation between grandparent and grandchild IQ is higher than one would expect from stacking two independent parent-child relationships.

Comment author: gwern 05 August 2014 09:45:28PM *  1 point [-]

Yes. I'm not sure how much they'd add; I ran into an interesting observation about this with regard to estimating cows' milk production based on their relatives and on SNPs, where the comparison runs the other direction:

The R^2 values were converted to realized reliabilities by dividing by mean reliability of 2008 daughter deviations and then adding the difference between published and observed reliabilities of 2003 parent averages. When averaged across all traits, combined genomic predictions had realized reliabilities that were 23% greater than reliabilities of parent averages (50 vs. 27%), and gains in information were equivalent to 11 additional daughter records.

So if an old SNP chip can add that much information in terms of family records, the family can't matter that much.