luzr comments on What I Think, If Not Why - Less Wrong

25 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 11 December 2008 05:41PM

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Comment author: luzr 11 December 2008 09:10:41PM 4 points [-]

"FOOM that takes two years"

In addition to comments by Robin and Aron, I would also pointed out the possibility that longer the FOOM takes, larger the chance it is not local, regardless of security - somewhere else, there might be another FOOMing AI.

Now as I understand, some consider this situation even more dangerous, but it as well might create "take over" defence.

Another comment to FOOM scenario and this is sort of addition to Tim's post:

"As machines get smarter, they will gradually become able to improve more and more of themselves. Yes, eventually machines will be able to cut humans out of the loop - but before that there will have been much automated improvement of machines by machines - and after that there may still be human code reviews."

Eliezer seems to spend a lot of time explaining what happens when "k > 1" - when AI intelligence surpases human and starts selfimproving. But I suspect that the phase 0.3 < k < 1 might be pretty long, maybe decades.

Also, moreover, by the time of FOOM, we should be able to use vast amounts of fast 'subcritical' AIs (+ weak AIs) as guardians of process. In fact, by that time, k < 1 AIs might play a pretty important role in world economy and security by that time and it does not take too much pattern recognition power to keep things at bay. (Well, in fact, I believe Eliezer proposes something similar in his thesis, except for locality issue).