I appear today on Bloggingheads.tv, in "Science Saturday: Singularity Edition", speaking with John Horgan about the Singularity. I talked too much. This episode needed to be around two hours longer.
One question I fumbled at 62:30 was "What's the strongest opposition you've seen to Singularity ideas?" The basic problem is that nearly everyone who attacks the Singularity is either completely unacquainted with the existing thinking, or they attack Kurzweil, and in any case it's more a collection of disconnected broadsides (often mostly ad hominem) than a coherent criticism. There's no equivalent in Singularity studies of Richard Jones's critique of nanotechnology - which I don't agree with, but at least Jones has read Drexler. People who don't buy the Singularity don't put in the time and hard work to criticize it properly.
What I should have done, though, was interpreted the question more charitably as "What's the strongest opposition to strong AI or transhumanism?" in which case there's Sir Roger Penrose, Jaron Lanier, Leon Kass, and many others. None of these are good arguments - or I would have to accept them! - but at least they are painstakingly crafted arguments, and something like organized opposition.
John Horgan is a sloppy thinker. But if this was a contest to strengthen vs. weaken the credibility of AI research -- a kind of status competition -- then I think he got the better of you.
Is it important to convince nonprofessionals that the singularity is plausible, in advance of it actually happening? If so, then you need to find a way to address the "this is just an apocalyptic religion" charge that Mr. Horgan brings here. It will not be the last time you hear it, and it is particularly devastating in its own somewhat illogical way. 1. All people dismiss most claims that their lives will be radically different in the near future, without giving due consideration 2. This behavior is rational! At least, it is useful, since nearly all such claims are bogus and "due consideration" is costly, 3. Your own claims can be easily caricatured as resembling millenarianist trash (singularity = rapture, etc. One of the bloggingheads commenters makes a crack about your "messianism" as a product of your jewish upbringing.)
How do you get through the spam filter? I don't know, but "read my policy papers" sounds too much like "read my manifesto." It doesn't distinguish you from crazy people before they read it, so they won't. (Mr. Horgan didn't. Were you really surprised?) You need to find sound bites if you're going to appear on bloggingheads at all.
In the political blogosphere, this is called "concern trolling." Whatever.