That's a good suggestion. I wasn't sure if I could make the question qualitative enough for a prediction market. I'm thinking something along the lines of "If Rishi Sunak is removed from office (in the next 3 years) is funding to the Frontier Taskforce reduced by 50% or more within 6 months".
And hence, to what extent might we expect all that momentum to suddenly dissipate?
In other words, if Sunak was to suddenly leave office (as is tradition for British PMs) would you expect the Frontier AI Taskforce to continue receiving funds, or would it be quietly shelved.
I get the vibe* much of the current interest in AI safety from the UK government comes from the PM personally being concerned about AI risks, and is not necessarily going to be a position shared by the next PM.
*I have put almost no effort into confirming this is true.