If you believe the DA, and you also believe you're being simulated (with some probability), then you should believe to be among the last N% humans in the simulation. So you don't escape the DA entirely.
However, it may be that if you believe yourself to be likely in a simulation, you shouldn't believe the DA at all. The DA assumes you know how many humans lived before you, and that you're not special among them. Both may be false in a simulation of human history: it may not have simulated all the humans and pre-humans who ever lived, and/or you may be in a ...
If I were doing it, I'd save computing power by only simulating the people who would program the AI. I don't think I'm going to do that, so it doesn't apply to me. Eliezer doesn't accept the Doomsday Argument, or at least uses a decision theory that makes it irrelevant, so it wouldn't apply to him.
So - I am still having issues parsing this, and I am persisting because I want to understand the argument, at least. I may or may not agree, but understanding it seems a reasonable goal.
The builders know, of course, that this is much riskier than it seems, because its success would render their own observations extremely rare.
The success of the self-modifying AI would make the builders of that AI's observations extremely rare... why? Because the AI's observations count, and it is presumably many orders of magnitude faster?
For a moment, I will assume I...
See LW wiki's Doomsday Argument for reference.
The problem I have with this kind of reasoning is that it causes early reasoners to come to wrong conclusions (though 'on average' the reasoning is most probably true).
Nope. I don't think ignoring causality to such extent makes sense. Simulating many instances of humanity won't make other risks magically go away, because it basically has no effect on them.
Yet another example of how one can misuse rationality and start to believe bogus statements.
Seems backwards. If you are a society that has actually designed and implemented an AI and infrastructure capable of "creating billions of simulated humanities" - it seems de-facto you are the "real" set, as you can see the simulated ones, and a recursive nesting of such things should, in theory have artifacts of some sort (ie. a "fork bomb" in the unix parlance).
I rather think that pragmatically, if a simulated society developed an AI capable of simulating society in sufficient fidelity, it would self-limit - either the simul...
A self-modifying AI is built to serve humanity. The builders know, of course, that this is much riskier than it seems, because its success would render their own observations extremely rare. To solve the problem, they direct the AI to create billions of simulated humanities in the hope that this will serve as a Schelling point to them, and make their own universe almost certainly simulated.
Plausible?