in politics, all opponents of an idea will have their own definition for it, but the supporters will only have one.
Is this true? It seems to me that large scale agreement about anything in politics is fairly rare. Also, people seem to be more aware of differences on their own side than among their opponents. Do you have examples?
Interesting post.
However, I am sceptical about 9. Many ideas have swept the world though their sheer superiority. Here are some examples from a wide variety of domains:
Outside of politics, things frequently do succeed purely because they are better. Only in politics does "people don't like my idea? Better threaten to shoot them" sound like a natural result.
I think limited liability corporations are a very political thing. I would guess that they don't exist in some communist countries.
Not only that, but incorporation laws are written very differently in different capitalist countries. Economists have debated over whether various apparent differences between Britain, Germany, and USA arose historically from the precise details of the laws and institutional forms for incorporation, partnership, and banking in the three different economies. If I remember correctly, Britain displayed a different pattern of industrialization from the other two due to its laws favoring partnerships of wealthy families over joint-stock companies.
(Points (1) and (4) all over again.)
Yes that's true. But once you have laws permitting (not necessarily making mandatory) limited liability corporations, they tend to out-compete other forms of organization in a wide array of fields. Once given the option, people choose this form of organization because of it's superiority. Indeed, I think the limited liability corporation has come about as close to "taking over the world" as ideas ever do.
Once given the option, people choose this form of organization because of it's superiority.
I would be wary of so quickly buying into LLC as only being laws 'permitting' it and having 'superiority'. If a law was passed giving particular companies subsidies of billions of dollars, you might not be surprised if the companies did well and proved their 'superiority', but you would be a little nonplussed at people describing the subsidies as 'permitted'.
As I understand it, LLCs are not so much permitted as subsidized: if you wanted to form a corporation or partnership before various countries fully legalized them, you certainly could, you were indeed 'permitted' to form corporations; what you got, however, was also full liability - the people who made up the corporation were liable for its actions. LLCs get a subsidy in shareholders being able to shed liability and risk for their actions beyond the net worth of the LLC. This is not a free lunch, however, and it comes at the expense of everyone who has a claim against an LLC and discovers it's bankrupt or a shell and that they can't pierce the corporate veil.
Limited liability is not a free lunch. Being able to be sued is an important right - it gives others the confidence to deal with you, as you can be held accountable. Being able to discharge those obligations in bankruptcy means a LLC has to prove its reliability in other ways - for example, by holding more capital, or posting collateral, or simply offering better prices to make up for it. As it happened, this proved to be more efficient that unlimited personal liability, so LLC's won out. Third parties could freely choose to deal with non-LLCs if they wanted to, and if they did, they would not be taxed to fund LLCs, so there is no subsidy.
The one case where you have a stronger case is with negative externalities, where an LLC might cause damage to third parties. In this case third parties are paying the 'tax' of the externality. However, I do not think this was the most important cause for the rise of the LLC, and there are many other checks and balances - for example, not just any LLC is allowed to own a nuclear power plant, you have to be very well capitalized.
Also LLC's are generally more heavily taxed than partnerships, etc. - they pay income tax at the corporate level as well as at the individual level. They have risen to prominence despite this (literal) tax.
I would guess that they don't exist in some communist countries.
Yes, and those countries' economies aren't doing to well.
I was going to make exactly this point. Very few ideas get to 100% on their own, but it's obvious which ideas are winning and which are losing at most given times. A policy can be implemented more strongly with state power, but state power selects for ideas that pass the political sausage-making process, not for ideas that are actually good or right. Capitalist success is a much better filter for idea quality than government is(in large part, because the sorts of people who run governments tend to be ones who pick a few values to elevate and lose perspective on the importance of others).
Outside of politics, things frequently do succeed purely because they are better.
I am extremely skeptical of this claim, and would like to see a good deal more history for each of your examples. Sushi, in particular, strikes me as a strange thing to list: for what criteria is sushi so clearly the superior answer that it spread and pushed out other competitors? The world's burger bars appear to be just as intact as the sushi bars, in point of fact.
Only in politics does "people don't like my idea? Better threaten to shoot them" sound like a natural result.
Which fails to address the example I raised, which was explicitly and purposefully apolitical. If things spread and succeed purely on their own merits, rather than on the effort and power put into spreading them by people, then why are frequentist statistics still the standard in most of science?
I mean, are you really going to claim that some political party has been threatening to shoot people who win at probability?
And of course, "threaten to shoot them" is a libertarian applause light.
Sushi, in particular, strikes me as a strange thing to list: for what criteria is sushi so clearly the superior answer that it spread and pushed out other competitors?
I'm not a connoisseur, but I'm sure if you asked a Sushi fan they could tell you.
The world's burger bars appear to be just as intact as the sushi bars, in point of fact.
Good point. The franchise burger chain was another excellent innovation that spread like wildfire ... a special kind of wildfire that doesn't kill people and where getting burnt is both entirely optional and quite pleasant. In this case I can explain some of the advantages:
why are frequentist statistics still the standard in most of science?
Because they are easy, and frequently good enough. In cases where the difference matters (Machine Learning, some areas of Finance) it's very bayesian.
Furthermore, I don't think the field of statistics would have been improved if the government had appointed a Statistics Tsar to crack down on anyone using non-ideologically-compliant techniques.
And of course, "threaten to shoot them" is a libertarian applause light.
I'm not sure this is true here. According to the original article,
Most applause lights ... can be detected by a simple reversal test... [If] the reversal sounds abnormal, the unreversed statement is probably normal, implying it does not convey new information.
Yet here this is not the case. Some people really do advocate threatening to shoot people who disagree: revolutionaries explicitly, and many other people implicitly - including you. The phrase is conveys information - it shows how many people apply fail to hold politicians, policemen and the state more broadly to the moral standards they ordinarily use to judge people.
edit: unclear sentence structure fixed
Yet here this is not the case.
But of course it is. Libertarians shoot people who violate private property titles. Wanting to enforce a different set of laws does not mean one is actually an anarchist, nor should any sensible consequentialist put himself in the situation of competing to signal greater anarchism-virtue.
If the reversed sentence sounds coherent then the original sentence carried content, so it's not an applause light.
Do not ask whether a politician Believes in Global Warming. Ask whether that politician would want their kids to inherit a nice house in South Miami.
(But beware: if this trick gets around, politicians will buy or sell their Florida real estate in order to signal tribal allegiance.)
New business model - marketing land vulnerable to climate change or sea level rise specifically to people who want to signal that they don't believe those things will happen.
Warning: implementing this may cost you one (1) soul.
Why not market housing in "vibrant" and "diverse" neighborhoods to people who are politically supportive of immigration?
Oh wait, we tried that already, and it didn't work - they all want to live in "safe" places with "good" schools. Bummer.
Why would it cost you a soul? This is Prediction Markets 101 - people buy and sell possessions that have different values based on predictions of future outcomes based on their belief in those outcomes.
Sure, and the people on cigarette marketing teams are just informing people to help them make rational choices in the market.
Assuming they follow truth in advertising rules, that is an unironically correct statement. Different cigarettes differ, and I see no reason to believe that advertising can't help one tobacco company poach customers from another. Some people choose to start smoking as well, and they're legitimate targets for advertising. Advertising isn't all about convincing new customers to start your product category at all.
So by that standard almost no politicians believe in global warming.
Notice how all the rich actors who show up at charity events to "fight global warming" are also lining up to buy beach front property. (They also tend to fly around in private jets, but that's a separate issue.)
Edit: The reason I didn't use politicians in the above example is that not all politicians can afford beachfront property and the ability to do so correlates with other things that may be relevant to whether you want him in power.
Notice how all the rich actors who show up at charity events to "fight global warming" are also lining up to buy beach front property.
Evidence?
As a possibility, buying current beach-front property is consistent with believing in global warming if you also believe that it is hard enough to predict where the new beach-front will be that it is cheaper (say, per future-discounted year of residence) to buy property on the current beach and then at the new location of the beach, than it is to buy any combination of properties today.
The inheritance question is actually rather different, as it is about buying beach-front-property-futures in the present.
It does not matter if those "reasons" are signaling, privilege, hegemony, or having an invisible devil on your shoulder whispering into your bloody ear: to impugn someone else's epistemology entirely at the meta-level without saying a thing against their object-level claims is anti-epistemology.
Ignoring reasons why someone believes what they believe is not good epistemology.
Learn first to explicitly identify yourself with a political "tribe", and next to consider political ideas individually, as questions of fact and value subject to investigation via epistemology and moral epistemology, rather than treating politics as "tribal".
I don't think explicitly identifying yourself with one tribe is a good idea. I personally don't map to any specific political tribe. I might label myself as having a hacker ideology and use that as an argument that I oppose French secularism but I would guess that most people on LW wouldn't see the connection.
In school we had a philosophy course and our teacher told us that wanting to name tribes is a very American thing. German culture doesn't have the same value of signalling tribal affiliation.
I remember Berlin's SPD Finance senator Sarrazin being asked whether he's in the wrong party after he wrote his book critising the lower social classes. He answered that one doesn't change his poltiical party like one's clothing. He had his post because he was actually good at his job.
As far as the meaning of the word democracy goes I like the way Yes, Minister explains British Demorcracy. It doesn't have much to do with the American idea of political tribalism.
It does not matter if those "reasons" are signaling, privilege, hegemony, or having an invisible devil on your shoulder whispering into your bloody ear: to impugn someone else's epistemology entirely at the meta-level without saying a thing against their object-level claims is anti-epistemology.
Ignoring reasons why someone believes what they believe is not good epistemology.
It depends.
If I understand all of someone's logical arguments for believing what they believe, and I have the knowledge and processing power needed to evaluate those arguments, and I want to know whether the belief is correct, I should ignore all of the non-logical reasons why they believe what they believe. Argument screens off authority, which means it also screens off non-authority and indeed anti-authority.
If someone tells me the sun's shining, and I look outside and see the sun's shining, it doesn't matter if the person told me the sun's shining because they're trying to signal something else; it doesn't matter if they're privileged; it doesn't matter if they're a hegemon; it doesn't matter if they have an invisible devil on their ear. I can see for myself that they're correct. The process that generated the claim has been rendered utterly irrelevant.
But of course I've made some assumptions there which are routinely false: I often don't have the knowledge or processing power needed to evaluate all of someone's arguments, and sometimes don't even know the arguments for a belief. If so, it's legitimate to use what I know about the belief-generating process as a cognitive shortcut to judge the belief. And this is true frequently enough that you have a good point, too: in real life we don't have time to do a full-blown evaluation of the belief network supporting a claim, in which case the "reasons why someone believes what they believe" can be useful (even important) evidence. Whether you are correct or eli_sennesh is correct is situation-dependent.
If someone tells me the sun's shining, and I look outside and see the sun's shining, it doesn't matter if the person told me the sun's shining because they're trying to signal something else; it doesn't matter if they're privileged; it doesn't matter if they're a hegemon; it doesn't matter if they have an invisible devil on their ear. I can see for myself that they're correct.
A person can mention that the sun is shining because they seek a small talk topic with little chance of offense.
They can also say the sun is shinning to indicate that the dislike being indoors at the moment.
If you only focus on the fact that the sun is indeed shining you might miss most of the communicated information.
That's true, some conversations are not actually about what they're denotatively about. I didn't think eli_sennesh was talking about such mundane small talk, though.
If I understand all of someone's logical arguments for believing what they believe, and I have the knowledge and processing power needed to evaluate those arguments,
Outside of math you also need the relevant evidence, i.e., observations, which requires you to trust that they have been accurately reported.
-- Mark Friedenbach
Of course, with the prompting to state my own thoughts, I simply had to go and start typing them out. The following contains obvious traces of my own political leanings and philosophy (in short summary: if "Cthulhu only swims left", then I AM CTHULHU... at least until someone explains to me what a Great Old One is doing out of R'lyeh and in West Coast-flavored American politics), but those traces should be taken as evidence of what I believe rather than statements about it.
Because what I was actually trying to talk about, is rationality in politics. Because in fact, while it is hard, while it is spiders, all the normal techniques work on it. There is only one real Cardinal Sin of Attempting to be Rational in Politics, and it is the following argument, stated in generic form that I might capture it from the ether and bury it: "You only believe what you believe for political reasons!" It does not matter if those "reasons" are signaling, privilege, hegemony, or having an invisible devil on your shoulder whispering into your bloody ear: to impugn someone else's epistemology entirely at the meta-level without saying a thing against their object-level claims is anti-epistemology.
Now, on to the ranting! The following are more-or-less a semi-random collection of tips I vomited out for trying to deal with politics rationally. I hope they help. This is a Discussion post because Mark said that might be a good idea.