There is a lot of talk here about sophisticated rationality failures - priming, overconfidence, etc. etc. There is much less talk about what I think is the more common reason for people failing to act rationally in the real world - something that I think most people outside this community would agree is the most common rationality failure mode - acting emotionally (pjeby has just begun to discuss this, but I don't think it's the main thrust of his post...).
While there can be sound evolutionary reasons for having emotions (the thirst for revenge as a Doomsday Machine being the easiest to understand), and while we certainly don't want to succumb to the fallacy that rationalists are emotionless Spock-clones. I think overcoming (or at least being able to control) emotions would, for most people, be a more important first step to acting rationally than overcoming biases.
If I could avoid saying things I'll regret later when angry, avoid putting down colleagues through jealousy, avoid procrastinating because of laziness and avoid refusing to make correct decisions because of fear, I think this would do a lot more to make me into a winner than if I could figure out how to correctly calibrate my beliefs about trivia questions, or even get rid of my unwanted Implicit Associations.
So the question - do we have good techniques for preventing our emotions from making bad decisions for us? Something as simple as "count to ten before you say anything when angry" is useful if it works. Something as sophisticated as "become a Zen Master" is probably unattainable, but might at least point us in the right direction - and then there's everything in between.
This is something I've pondered myself. I think you're at least partly right, but I'm not entirely certain.
Let's say that the desire you usually feel in this regard is to not gain weight. What if, while experiencing the craving, your current desire to eat a chocolate bar doesn't reflect a temporary change in your incentive structure, but instead reflects a temporary distortion of your mental map of reality? For example, your certainty that eating the chocolate bar will make you gain weight might have decreased from 80% to 1%. If the truth is that eating the chocolate bar will in fact make you gain weight, you will therefore be less rational while experiencing this craving than before (or after).
I suspect there's a bit of both going on but I'm fairly sure it's not as dramatic a discounting as an 80% to 1% change (I realize your numbers were only illustrative of the idea). My feeling based on introspection of the decision making process when making a choice that favours short term gain over the more 'rational' longer term choice is that I am still fully aware of the negative consequences, I just discount them heavily.
If there's one area where my judgements are distorted it is in my estimate of how likely I am to be able to 'make up' for present ch... (read more)