Open thread, Jul. 11 - Jul. 17, 2016

MrMind

If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.

Notes for future OT posters:

1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.

2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately before; refresh the list-of-threads page before posting.)

3. Open Threads should be posted in Discussion, and not Main.

4. Open Threads should start on Monday, and end on Sunday.

If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.

Notes for future OT posters:

1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.

2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately before; refresh the list-of-threads page before posting.)

3. Open Threads should be posted in Discussion, and not Main.

4. Open Threads should start on Monday, and end on Sunday.

I know regard reading a book a not so trivial investment of time and energy, given the huge quantity of possible books I could be reading right now.
Is there any particular reason to believe Hanson's beliefs? So that it makes sense to anticipate the future the way he does?

There's no particular reason to believe all of his predictions. But that's also true of anyone else who makes as many predictions as the book does (on similar topics).

When you say "anticipate the future the way he does", are you asking whether you should believe there's a 10% chance of his scenario being basicly right?

Nobody should have much confidence in such predictions, and when Robin talks explicitly about his confidence, he doesn't sound very confident.

Good forecasters consider multiple models before making predictions (see Tetlock's work). Reading the book is a better way for most people to develop an additional model of how the future might be than reading new LW comments.