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gwern comments on Open Thread, Aug. 22 - 28, 2016 - All
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https://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/greatfilter.html http://hanson.gmu.edu/hardstep.pdf https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Great_Filter ?
There we go. No wonder I couldn't find it, it wasn't on LessWrong, and also a lot older than three years. Thanks!