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nazgulnarsil comments on General Bitcoin discussion thread (June 2011) - Less Wrong Discussion
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66% pullback in price this weekend. This certainly isn't a market for the fainthearted.
My probability distribution looks something like 90% chance of going to 0 and 10% chance of going to multiple hundreds of dollars.
My downside is limited to having paid market price for 2 video cards and a power supply if bitcoins go to zero. My friend just built a mining rig with three cards for around $650. I tried to talk him out of it but the concept of free money seems to override people's ability to make cost benefit analysis.
I will bet at those odds. $1 pays me $10,000,000 that it stays in the range of $0.1 to $100 for two years.
At its lowest, it hit the price it was at on 7th June, right?
7th June it was around 18 dollars I think. It fell all the way down to 10 dollars before bouncing back.
Clearly, the market is responding to people questioning its efficacy on Less Wrong. :P
Are you buying bitcoins? Expected utility is in the multiple tens of dollars if you believe that.
It's funny you should mention that, because just about the time of the collapse a bunch of posters on the Something Awful thread mocking bitcoins decided to see if they could crash the market by posting SELL SELL SELL messages on various discussion boards. From the posts there they think it's coincidence though- the crash was caused by a single big seller.
I'm mining. And my utility is not uniform over my money. Money now is significantly more valuable than money will be once I graduate college.
If I had more disposable income I would have bought some directly.
I'm curious, are you still mining? Also, are you living in a dorm with fixed electricity cost?
mining was unprofitable for a long while until just recently with the price recovery. mining now is worth it for the free heating.