The post by Stross triggered a reaction by Alex Knapp, 'What’s the Likelihood of the Singularity? Part One: Artificial Intelligence', which in turn caused Michael Anissimov to respond, 'Responding to Alex Knapp at Forbes'.

I also think that human-level AI is unlikely for a number of reasons – more than a few of them related to the differences between biological and machine intelligence. For one thing, we’re approaching the end of Moore’s Law in about a decade and a half or so, and generalized quantum computing isn’t likely to be with us anytime soon yet. For example, D-Wave’s adiabatic quantum computer isn’t a general computer – it’s focused on optimization problems. But even with that, the differences between human, animal and machine intelligence are profound.

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At the present time, a lot of the ways that human beings think is simply unknown. To argue that we can simply “workaround” the issue misses the underlying point that we can’t yet quantify the difference between human intelligence and machine intelligence.

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...it’s definitely worth noting that computers don’t play “human-level” chess. Although computers are competitive with grandmasters, they aren’t truly intelligent in a general sense – they are, basically, chess-solving machines. And while they’re superior at tactics, they are woefully deficient at strategy, which is why grandmasters still win against/draw against computers.

...computers lose to humans because they are simply no match for humans at creating long-term chess strategy.

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As for Watson’s ability to play Jeopardy!, it’s important to note that while Watson did win the Jeopardy tournament he played in, it’s worth noting that Watson’s primary advantage was being able to beat humans to the buzzer (electric relays are faster than chemical ones). Moreover, as many who watched the tournament (such as myself) noted, Watson got worse the more abstract the questions got.

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What computers are smart at are brute-force calculations and memory retrieval. They’re not nearly as good at pattern recognition or the ability to parse meaning and ambiguity, nor are they good at learning.

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...there are more than a few limitations on human-level AI, not the least of which are the actual physical limitations coming with the end of Moore’s Law and the simple fact that, in the realm of science, we’re only just beginning to understand what intelligence, consciousness, and sentience even are, and that’s going to be a fundamental limitation on artificial intelligence for a long time to come. Personally, I think that’s going to be the case for centuries.