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lessdazed20

Please help me find:

"When the Only Constant is Change," Negotiation, Vol. 8, No. 12, December 2005

Ployart, Robert E., Jonathan C. Ziegert, and Lynn A. McFarland. “Understanding Racial Differences on Cognitive Ability Test in Selection Contexts: An Integration of Stereotype Threat and Applicant Reactions Research." Human Performance 16 (2003): 231–259.

Social influence effects on automatic racial prejudice. By Lowery, Brian S.; Hardin, Curtis D.; Sinclair, Stacey Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Vol 81(5), Nov 2001, 842-855.

Thank you.

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Showing 3 of 4 replies (Click to show all)
wedrifid00

"When the Only Constant is Change," Negotiation, Vol. 8, No. 12, December 2005

If the only constant was change negotiation would be pointless. Silly title.

Reply
0Richard_Kennaway
Here. There are a lot of things on the web with that exact title, but this one acks Negotiation as the source.
1beriukay
I found this from the Harvard Business Review, which had a block of text that looks a lot like this, which I have downloaded as a .pdf in case it magically goes away. Is that what you were looking for?
See in context
by jsalvatier
1 min read
441

75

Update: Please use the most recent thread.

The LW Public Goods Team wants to encourage useful research projects (as well other kinds of projects) for the LW community. If you're interested in doing this kind of work, you might run into a problem that is best solved by good outside assistance. Without assistance you might get discouraged and stop working on the project or never even start it. We want to help you avoid that. Do you

  • Not know how to interpret a finding and want help figuring it out?
  • Need access to a particular paper and need someone with a library subscription to download it for you?
  • Need someone to edit your writing?
  • Not even know what you're having trouble with, but you know is that you're stuck and need someone to troubleshoot you?

Then, we want to help!

How do you request such help? For now, I think the best way is to post to the discussion section about your problem. That way other interested people can also provide help and be interested in your research. If you feel uncomfortable doing this, you may post to the public goods team mailing list (lw-public-goods-team@googlegroups.com) or if it's not too long after this was posted, post in the comments.

I personally commit to doing at least 3 hours a week of tasks like these for people doing LessWrong related projects (assuming demand for it; I'll be keeping a log) for at least the next month. Morendil has committed to doing at least an hour of this and atucker has promised to some as well.

Our goal is to find out whether this kind of help is effective and encourages people. If this kind of assistance turns out to be valuable, we'll continue to offer it.

If you would like to volunteer some time (a little or a lot), say so in the comments!

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[-]lukeprog170

This has turned out to be an incredibly useful page. Thanks again, John! I wish I could upvote the article again.

Reply
[-]gwern140

This post is, I think, an excellent demonstration of what I keep telling people: if you can commit even a little bit of time over a long period doing something that people aren't voluntarily doing already, you can do something pretty useful.

For this patience claim, I usually use examples like Wikipedia articles or FAQs or self-experiments, but this page is also a good example: for a bit of menial annoying (but otherwise undemanding) work, John has materially assisted me in multiple articles (sunk costs, iodine, and lithium among others).

Reply
2jsalvatier
And now others are helping and asking for help! It warms my heart. You made me smile lots. Thanks :)
4jsalvatier
I'm glad I could help! The thing that really turned out to be useful, I think, is the inter library loan and the ease with which the university of washington lets you use it (no fees and just a simple web form). I wonder if we could get you and gwern direct access to it somehow. If it were my account, I'd just give you my login, but it's a borrowed account itself.
1gwern
That might be a little dangerous. When I was using SUNY SBU's ILL for my own projects and filling occasional requests, I eventually got cut off for over-use...
1jsalvatier
Okay, so we need to find someone who doesn't use ILL for their own materials. I've now made quite a few requests, and I haven't been cut off, how long did it take you to get cut off?
1gwern
It was during the second semester, towards the end, so I think it was March or May.
[-]VincentYu130

Request for comments from others who frequent this page:

I have been feeling that the academic literature is severely underused outside academia, including here on LW. Every now and then, I see a discussion that I think of interrupting to say, "Why don't you guys go on Google Scholar to learn more about this from people who have already thought about this? [As opposed to trying to come up with the same ideas by yourselves.]" (Access isn't a problem: abstracts often provide the information that one is looking for, and besides, free access to the vast majority of cited articles is available within hours from, e.g., here and Reddit's r/scholar.)

I'm hesitant about making this sort of comment because there is a clear potential for signaling: "I read journal articles that smart people read; I'm so smart. [You don't read these articles; you're not smart.]" From an outside view, I can imagine people making this sort of comment to signal intelligence (related), so I'm worried that my belief that the academic literature is underused is coming from a rationalization of a desire to use this signal.

If the literature is indeed underused, one possible explanation is that online... (read more)

Reply
[-]gwern110

'Discussion is not about Information'? If I saw people using Google routinely, I would wonder if maybe there's some sort of recentness issue; but I see even sophisticated young techies who literally grew up using Google failing to do so. I can't count how many times on LessWrong, Reddit, Wikipedia, or IRC I have spent 5 seconds in Google and refuted or confirmed someone's speculation. There's a reason LMGIFY is an acronym.

Reply
2VincentYu
Huh, this was actually the first explanation that came to mind. I wanted to check if I was being too cynical (or too caught up in my own signaling), so I avoided mentioning it.
1jsalvatier
This is certainly true, I often do this myself and notice I could Google something and still don't do it. It's usually when I'm hanging out with friends and we're speculating about something because it's fun to speculate rather than because we want to figure something out.
6satt
Beware trivial inconveniences! I do agree with your main point, though. I've had experiences like gwern's of being able to dredge up information to check guesses (or comments that just trigger my BS detector generally) in 5 minutes with Google, Wikipedia, or even my PDF folder.
6Shmi
A former coworker of mine used to say in such circumstances: " Shall we make it up or look it up?"
[-]razor11110

There is a website called ezproxy dot blogspot dot com which posts occasionally working password to library sites and universities' online resources. It might prove useful to some people here.

Reply
6demented
password2password dot eamped dot com also offers the same feature as well as a subforum specifically for article requests. It makes sense to have an account there. 55face dot blogspot dot com too posts occasional passwords to library sites. It makes sense to bookmark it too. Of course, the best option would be to use your local library itself..
[-]VincentYu40

I am interested in obtaining the manuals and test booklets for the following psychometric inventories:

NEO Personality Inventory-Revised (NEO-PI-R)

Publisher's product page.

The NEO-PI-3 and NEO-FFI-3 would also be useful. (The manuals for these three inventories seem to be identical.)

Raven's Advanced Progressive Matrices (APM)

Publisher's product page.

The SPM(+) and CPM would also be useful. (The manuals for these tests are split into several sections/volumes.)

I am not able to buy these inventories from the publishers: the NEO PI-R requires an S-level quali... (read more)

Reply
2Douglas_Knight
Have you tried interlibrary loan? Lots of university libraries have them.
2VincentYu
That's a good idea, thanks.
5jsalvatier
who is likely to acquire programming skills
3jsalvatier
Requested
[-]daenerys40

Can anyone access this : http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1751-9004.2011.00381.x/full

  • “Hindsight bias- A Primer for Motivational Researchers” by Mark Pezzo, at the Wiley Online Library.
Reply
2jsalvatier
Don't have direct access but have requested and should have an electronic copy in 1-3 days.
0daenerys
Thank you!
9jsalvatier
Done
0daenerys
Thank you!
[-]James_Blair40

This sounds like a good idea, thanks for committing the time for it! On reading I had two thoughts:

  • While I'm assuming that you're willing to try helping with anything, people with more technical problems will appreciate a summary of what skills you can provide in particular.
  • I'm also wondering if there is demand for this in a format more like HN office hours.
Reply
8jsalvatier
1 - Good idea! * I pride myself in giving actually useful editing, not just trivial things. I will, * tell you when things don't make sense * tell you you have to rewrite or add sections * cross out chunks with abandon * give you organizational advice. * I have access to the University of Washington's library system, so I can download most papers. * I know quite a bit of Bayesian stats * I have an engineering background. * I have Lots of programming experience. * I like having something explained to me and then repeating back my understanding I'll have to ask the others to post what they think their strong points are. 2 - I'm not actually familiar with HN office hours, so I will have to take a look. Thanks for the link!
0jsalvatier
Can you elaborate on what kind of setup you're thinking of in terms of HN office hours?
0James_Blair
Let people make appointments. Everyone involved would agree to meet somewhere online and depending on exactly what was needed: have a conversation or use a session sharing tool for some collaborative work.
[-]gwern30

I'm starting to think it may be time to start a new article; besides being more manageable, one could go through the old one, identify any remaining outstanding requests, and copy them over. As it is, probably no one is going through the old ones because it's too hard to work out which ones haven't been filled...

Also a good excuse to tote up some statistics like '300 papers provided' etc!

Reply
0jsalvatier
I haven't noticed this being unmanageable recently, but I can see it becoming so. I wonder if there is a better solution than another thread though. Bug tracking software (perhaps github) might work well because people can open a request and then once it's found, the thread is hidden.
3gwern
People don't want to use a separate site; if they did, no one would be using this page because they'd be using the subreddit devoted to this, or the equivalent Wikipedia reference request desk, etc.
1jsalvatier
This service has mostly turned out to be used by a couple of people. Do you prefer to use LW proper? I was under the impression that this service was mostly valuable because we have access to ILL requests and because we're more interested in helping than elsewhere.
3gwern
I do, yeah. And it is easier to keep up here.
0jsalvatier
Hmm, okay. Have you noticed this thread being unwieldy in some way? What is your main concern?
3gwern
As comments increase, more of the page gets buried in click-to-continue wrappers, so any kind of navigation gets harder. It gets harder for me to refind old requests I might need. It gets harder for anyone to look through for unfilled requests. And so on. I also don't like pages with too many comments on pure aesthetic grounds. As good a time as any to pull the plug and inaugurate a second article. (Would be good for your karma too, which you deserve!)
1siodine
Speaking of difficult to navigate, can you navigate me towards your series of comments about studies regarding IQ in societies?
1gwern
You mean http://lesswrong.com/lw/7e1/rationality_quotes_september_2011/4r01 ?
1siodine
Yes, thank you :)
[-][anonymous]30

  1. A model of decision-making involving two information processors. COMPUTATIONAL ECONOMICS, Volume 2, Number 2 (1989), 119-149.

  2. Design of interactive systems—a formal approach International Journal of Man-Machine Studies, Volume 37, Issue 1, July 1992, Pages 23–46.

Reply
7VincentYu
First Second
0[anonymous]
Thanks.
1jsalvatier
Requested #1. Here's #2.
0[anonymous]
Thank you.
[-]lukeprog30

Does anyone know how to get this 1959 paper from I.J. Good? I don't even know where to look for an old "IBM Research Report" from 1959.

Reply
8gwern
http://domino.research.ibm.com/library/cyberdig.nsf/papers/58DC4EA36A143C218525785E00502E30/$File/rc115.pdf
3jsalvatier
Sent to your email. I am a little nervous about posting them somewhere public. I'd appreciate advice on this topic.
5gwern
Thanks; it's interesting so far. (The SAT and ACT series seem to, if anything, contradict the thesis - everything but math scores have stagnated or actually fallen.) As far as posting goes publicly, I host a lot of PDFs (for the DNB FAQ, mostly), and lukeprog (one of his selling points) hosts what must be hundreds* of PDFs so far. Neither of us has had any trouble so far, and in one case, The Notenki Memoirs, I believe the publisher has even been contacted by someone wanting to turn my ebook** into a legitimate one - no takedowns so far (somewhat to my surprise). * My local mirror of commonsenseatheism.com lists 573 PDFs ** I not merely host TNM, but I made the ebook single-handedly from my scans
1jsalvatier
Thanks! maybe I will host on a dropbox account publicly.
1gwern
Already done: http://dl.dropbox.com/u/5317066/DNB/2011-wai-flynneffect-exists-in-smartpeople.pdf
[-]jsalvatier20

I've made a new thread with the intent that new requests should go there. I'll probably still fill requests there, but please monitor requests at the new thread if you're helping out.

Reply
[-]VincentYu20

Two resources (I've rot13ed the names and URLs):

  • Yvoenel Trarfvf (yvotra.bet) – This enormous book repository has been mentioned a few times before on LW. yvotra.bet and tra.yvo.ehf.rp (you need a non-US VPN/proxy to access these) are the official mirrors. A list of mirrors operated by others can be found through Download -> Mirrors (and in the grandchild comment below).

  • Fpv-Uho (fpv-uho.bet) – This offers proxy access through ~20 different university libraries. It worked well on a few papers that I wasn't able to access otherwise. This should be espe

... (read more)
Reply
1jsalvatier
I'm a little confused. The first two links redirect to books.google.com for me. Is that cause I'm in the US? What's the best way to read more about Library Genesis? Sci-hub.org redirects to myescience.org, is that correct?
5VincentYu
o_O Huh. No, I did not anticipate these redirects for the first and third links... I just found the reason on their forum (can you access this?): Looks like they want to remain obscure, at least in the US: Here is the current list of mirrors (rot13ed); I'm pretty sure the 4th and 5th work in the US: * yvotra.bet * tra.yvo.ehf.rp * obbxsv.bet * jjj.yvotra.vasb * yvotra.vasb (guvf vf nccneragyl ba n qvssrerag freire guna jjj.yvotra.vasb) * jjj.yvotra.arg (guvf frrzf gb unir gur fnzr VC nf jjj.yvotra.vasb) * iahxv.bet * obbxbf.bet * h76i7un6w4wzgm3x2yfrnfb5dl36ykf77xyubizcghsjpbqbingd.o32.v2c/ (guebhtu V2C) Their IP filter list for yvotra.bet must not be very good because I can access it through my Rochester VPN (I'm in the UK right now). Yeah, it seems like Fpv-Uho redirects to myescience.org in the US, but that's not the correct site. The site that I see looks like this: imgur.com/XpVa3. I suppose people in the US will need a VPN or proxy to access it. Maybe try the free proxies on proxy.org? (I've been using this paid VPN service for ~1 year without issues, but there are plenty of other commercial alternatives.)
0jsalvatier
Very interesting. Have you found this site pretty useful above and beyond what your university gives you?
4VincentYu
Fpv-Uho is occasionally useful for me. E.g., I was actually unable to access this paper that Gwern requested below through any of my three university VPNs (Rochester, Oxford, Chinese University of Hong Kong), but I managed to grab it off one of the library proxies through Fpv-Uho. (Yvoenel Trarfvf is obviously useful for anyone who wants to download books.)
[-]ChrisHallquist20

Hi everyone,

I'm currently working for the Singularity Institute on a project tracking AI progress over the decades. One section I'm working on is on logistics AI. I'm trying to find information on a program called NONLIN apparently used by the Navy. The paper Russell & Norvig cite as a source on NONLIN is not available free online, far as I can tell:

Tate, A. and Whiter, A. M. (1984). Planning with multiple resource constraints and an application to a naval planning problem_ in Proc. First Conference on AI Application, pp. 410-4 Lb.

If anyone can get me this paper, PM me, and I'll send you my e-mail address. If you happen across other sources with information on NONLIN, that would be appreciated too!

Reply
3jsalvatier
I've submitted an Inter Library Loan request. Should hopefully have it in a couple of days.
3VincentYu
I don't have the paper you are trying to find, but here are three pharmaceutical papers on using NONLIN (found via Google Scholar): [1] [2] [3] ETA: Actually, I think that might be a different NONLIN... It wouldn't surprising for two independently developed nonlinear fitters to be both named NONLIN.
2ChrisHallquist
Thanks. Unfortunately, I think that is a different NONLIN - the one I'm looking for handles logistics.
2ChrisHallquist
Also useful for a different part of the same project would be Early, J. 1970. "An efficient context-free parsing algorithm" Communications of the ACM. Vol. 13, No. 2, pp. 94-102.
1VincentYu
Here.
0jsalvatier
Finally got it
1jsalvatier
Here's the second finally.
1jsalvatier
first I'll make the request for the second in a while.
3gwern
Is the book http://libgen.info/view.php?id=824427 not adequate?
2Jack
That works.
5beriukay
1. Andrew, A.M. Learning Machines, 1959. Found here. 2. Booth, Andrew. How Much Can Machines Learn?. 3. There's a book at the local library, so I can get you some selected chapters. 4. In the works. 5. Same as #3. 6. Same, but may be in ebook form. 7. Also not found. 8. Same as #3. 9. Williams, J.D. Toward Intelligent Machines 10. Not found. Edited: Added #2 to list. Edited again: Added #9 to list.
4jsalvatier
Sorry, very little luck. 1. Not found. 2. Not found. 3. I can't get a whole book, but I could probably get a chapter out of a book 4. Same. 5. Same. 6. I don't think I can even get a chapter from this book. 7. Not found. 8. No access. 9. Not found.
3Richard_Kennaway
If you're still looking for "Latest Methods for the Conception and Education of Intelligent Machines", my university library has the issue of the journal this appeared in (Behavioral Science 4: 248-51; July 1959). Let me know if you want a copy.
0JJXW
Thank you very much for the offer. I am not looking for this text anymore.
[-][anonymous]20

1) Moore & Whinston (1986). A model of decision-making with sequential information-acquisition (Part 1). Decision Support Systems. Volume 2, Issue 4, December 1986, Pages 285–307.

2) Moore & Whinston (1987). A model of decision-making with sequential information-acquisition (Part 2). Decision Support Systems. Volume 3, Issue 1, March 1987, Pages 47–72.

3) Brehmer (1992). Dynamic decision making: Human control of complex systems. Acta Psychologica. Volume 81, Issue 3, December 1992, Pages 211–241.

Thanks in advance.

Reply
9gwern
1. http://dl.dropbox.com/u/5317066/1986-moore.pdf 2. http://dl.dropbox.com/u/5317066/1987-moore.pdf 3. http://dl.dropbox.com/u/5317066/1992-brehmer.pdf
2jsalvatier
Requested.
0lukeprog
Thanks!
8jsalvatier
Here it is
[-]lessdazed20

Please help me find:

"When the Only Constant is Change," Negotiation, Vol. 8, No. 12, December 2005

Ployart, Robert E., Jonathan C. Ziegert, and Lynn A. McFarland. “Understanding Racial Differences on Cognitive Ability Test in Selection Contexts: An Integration of Stereotype Threat and Applicant Reactions Research." Human Performance 16 (2003): 231–259.

Social influence effects on automatic racial prejudice. By Lowery, Brian S.; Hardin, Curtis D.; Sinclair, Stacey Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Vol 81(5), Nov 2001, 842-855.

Thank you.

Reply
6jsalvatier
I wasn't able to find 1 (edit: still can't find it free, but it looks like it's available here for $5 USD), but here's 2 and 3. I'm happy people are starting to use this.
0gwern
1 may not be too much of a surprise; when I went looking, I found http://libraryguides.waldenu.edu/mmgmt6140 which noted
1beriukay
I found this from the Harvard Business Review, which had a block of text that looks a lot like this, which I have downloaded as a .pdf in case it magically goes away. Is that what you were looking for?
0wedrifid
If the only constant was change negotiation would be pointless. Silly title.
0Richard_Kennaway
Here. There are a lot of things on the web with that exact title, but this one acks Negotiation as the source.
[-]KPier20

Cognitive Heuristics and American Security Policy, Kanwisher, 1989. http://jcr.sagepub.com/content/33/4/652.short

Reply
6jsalvatier
Bam! Done.
0KPier
Thanks!
[-]gwern20

Note to self: can always request from authors if LW, WP, and Reddit fail.

Reply
3jsalvatier
Okay, here are the other articles I found: 3 - comparing the means 4 - statistical problems 5 - natural selection 6 - life history and bioeconomy 7 - Effects of nutritional lithium supplementation 9 - Effects of nutritional lithium deficiency 10 - Drinking water lithium 12 - Naps and modafinil Notes: Luke mentions #1 here perhaps he has it and would scan it for you?
0gwern
Thanks! I've removed all the ones I've downloaded and incorporated to gwern.net from my parent comment. (I also removed the ILL metadata as appropriate.) '3 - comparing the means' seems broken? Luke's pretty busy and I was rather hoping there was a native electronic copy somewhere.
0jsalvatier
Should be fixed now.
0gwern
OK, I've downloaded it and... it seems to be a letter to the editor about Godfrey's article, but not the actual article?
0jsalvatier
That struck me as odd too, but I checked whether it matched the citation you gave me. I'll request a scan of the actual article.
0gwern
Did it ever come in?
2jsalvatier
Here
0gwern
Thanks.
0jsalvatier
Yes, but I'm not finding it in my drop box right now. I'll check my other folder when I get home.
0jsalvatier
I've re requested this.
0[anonymous]
Yep.
3jsalvatier
I have this post under RSS but I didn't get updates about this. I'll try to find these articles. I've had difficulty getting access to the first 5, but I think I may be able to order scans from them from the library. I'll be trying that.
0gwern
Thanks. I guess I'll just add any future requests as separate comments.
3jsalvatier
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/29304719/Papers/Aesthetics%20as%20a%20liberating%20force%20in%20mathematics%20education.pdf http://dl.dropbox.com/u/29304719/Papers/Creatine%20supplementation.pdf http://dl.dropbox.com/u/29304719/Papers/Sci%20Transl%20Med-2011-Levine-107ra109%20%281%29.pdf
2jsalvatier
Really bad haul for these: Most of these I did not have access to, but I put in a request for the library to get me a scanned copy, which should be free. If I get them, I'll post them. I generally do not have access to electronic copies of books. 7 - link 9 - The book can be found in my library, so if it's especially important, I could find it and scan it.
0gwern
Link #7 is broken; #9 is not as important as #2 or #13, but I would still like it. Maybe scan it if you go to check out another book?
0jsalvatier
Oops, should be fixed now. Will do.
0gwern
jsalvatier: I'm giving up on the WP requests for the Croxson and hope function articles - if the requests haven't borne fruit after 2 months, they probably never will. Could you handle them?
3jsalvatier
Hope function
1gwern
Followup: http://lesswrong.com/lw/dds/hope_function/
0gwern
Thanks for both.
2jsalvatier
Information Markets for decision making
0gwern
Got it. EDIT: kind of boring a paper. I regret spending so much time on it.
0jsalvatier
:(
0gwern
Well, I couldn't know until I read it.
2jsalvatier
I've submitted ILL requests for both. If the second doesn't come through I'll head down there and scan it.
-1gwern
Thanks.
[-]gwern10

Richardson, James T. 1991. "Cult/Brainwashing Cases and Freedom of Religion," J. Church & State, 33:1, pp. 55-74.

Reply
2VincentYu
Here
0gwern
Thanks.
[-]Jack10

Confirmation bias in a simulated research environment: An experimental study of scientific inference

Varieties of confirmation bias

And this is a stretch but i someone has these two chapters in a convenient format that would be spectacular:

Perkins, D. N., Allen, R., & Hafner, J. (1983). Difficulties in everyday reasoning. In W. Maxwell (Ed.), Thinking: The frontier expands.

and

Perkins, D. N., Farady, M., & Bushey, B. (1991). Everyday reasoning and the roots of intelligence. In J. F. Voss, D. N. Perkins, & J. W. Segal (Eds.), Informal reasoning an... (read more)

Reply
5VincentYu
Third. Fourth.
0Jack
Fast! Thanks.
3[anonymous]
Second
3VincentYu
First. Requested the other three.
[-]Jack10

For people retrieving articles: what is the easiest request format for you? I've been providing links to the article in databases but I just realized it would be easier for me to retrieve with links to a google scholar search.

Reply
0jsalvatier
I would prefer the title and author or year in the link. I usually just copy paste the name into my library search engine and try to find that.
0VincentYu
A link to a Google Scholar search with the article at the top would be the easiest for me. (A general note: searching with the 'allintitle:' operator and the article title often suffices to uniquely identify the article. An example.)
4jsalvatier
I don't have easy access to it, because it's a book, but I sent a request to her using what I think is her email (found here).
1gwern
Good idea. I was hoping there was some easier way to access theses than emailing the author, which is something I try to do as little as possible.
1jsalvatier
Do you just avoid that because you feel like it's rude to use the author's time, or are there other reasons?
3gwern
The former. They held up their end of the bargain, as it were, by actually producing whatever.
[-][anonymous]10

Is this project still running? If so, I'd like to volunteer some time. I anticipate needing some help in the future and would like to preemptively do my part.

Reply
1jsalvatier
Yup! Mostly people have just posted their requests here in the comments and then I try to help out. If this gets higher volume perhaps we'll need to move it somewhere else, but for now this is working. I monitor new comments using this RSS feed: http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/7hi/free_research_help_editing_and_article_downloads/.rss . If you'd like to help out, and you use an RSS reader, I think the easiest thing would be to just also monitor the site and respond to requests. If you don't us an RSS reader, I think you can turn RSS feeds into regular emails using this service (there are probably others too). I appreciate your help! I look forward to helping you when you need it!
0[anonymous]
Thank you for the helpful information! I'll take your suggestion about using the RSS feed. I look forward to helping y'all and being helped when needed.
0jsalvatier
Great!
[-]infotropism10

Hi, could anyone help me obtain

"Limits of Scientific Inquiry" by G. Holton, R. S. Morison ( 1978 )

and

"What is Your Dangerous Idea?: Today's Leading Thinkers on the Unthinkable." Brockman, John (2007)

Thanks in advance

Reply
2razor11
The second book on your list can be found here: http://free-books.us.to/get?nametype=orig&md5=5982F61815B32A27FF6C27D946EF4D36
0jsalvatier
The both of these are books, so I don't have ready access to an electronic copy, but both are very cheap to buy Limits (5.5 USD) and Dangerous (4 USD). I would guess you can also find them on pirating sites.
[-]lukeprog10

Needed: Good (1959). Could a machine make probability judgments? Computers and Automation 8, 14-16 and 24-26.

Reply
5jsalvatier
Here it is
2gwern
I can't get direct access either. Looks like the University of Washington has physical copies of v.2 (1953)- v.21 (1972) for Computers and Automation which one can request (presumably stored off-site in a warehouse), so if you know anyone there...
1jsalvatier
Heh, I actually do. I'll submit a request. (now done)
0jsalvatier
Unfortunately, it doesn't look like I have access to this journal.
[-]lukeprog10

Needed: Good (1982). Ethical machines.

Reply
0lukeprog
Well, I found 3/4 of it.
3jsalvatier
Oh, I didn't realize you still needed it. Here's the pdf.
0lukeprog
Ah, thanks!
0jsalvatier
Is this fairly important? I can stop by the library and scan this article if need be. The computer system is having a hard time with this.
0lukeprog
I'm just going to order the original book for $10, thanks.
6jsalvatier
Here
0lukeprog
Thanks!!
0jsalvatier
Requested.
[-]lukeprog10

Can anyone get behind the paywall to grab me this article?

I.J. Good (1970). Some future social repercussions of computers.

Reply
4jsalvatier
I don't have direct access, but I've requested it, and I should have an electronic copy in 1-3 days.
4gwern
He got it off of Reddit.
2lukeprog
Funny quote from the article: Sorry, Jack. It's 2012 and I'm afraid the implications and safeguards concerning machine superintelligence have still not been "thoroughly" discussed.
0gwern
Well, to be fair, his timeline also turned out to be pretty wrong - the Internet took longer to get going than he thought, and obviously a UIM didn't show up in 1993 or 1994. If it's only in the 201x or 202x that the issues have been thoroughly discussed, then it's all of a piece. (I liked his discussion of the 'just unplug the power plug' strategy.)
4lukeprog
Given that Good's 1970 paper is the second substantive analysis (after Good 1965) of some implications of machine superintelligence, it's odd that "Intelligence Explosion: Evidence and Import" (2012) will end up being the first article to cite it for its discussion of machine superintelligence. The paper was briefly famous for letting slip some details of his secret WWII work with Turing, while its discussion of machine superintelligence and its proposal for an association to discuss the implications of machine superintelligence (Singularity Institute, anyone?) fell into the void.
0gwern
Really? I noticed it mentioned some computing machine they used in the taxonomy of generations but I had no idea it was a secret. How weird that seems in this day where all the secrets of Bletchley Park are known...
0pedanterrific
"Ludditeniks" does kinda roll off the tongue, doesn't it?
0gwern
Not really, although I have to admit the bit about the computer propagandizing against them gave me pause: who do you see evangelizing against Luddism? High-level tech types like Marc Andreessen and tenured or well-paid economists...
0jsalvatier
Excellent.
[-]David Althaus00

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/14622741

Can anyone send me the full text? Thanks in advance

Reply
3jsalvatier
here
0David Althaus
thanks!
[-]gwern00

Legarde, D., Batejat, D., Van Beers, P., Sarafian, D., Pradella,S. (1995). Interest of Modafinil, a New Psychostimulant, During a Sixty-Hour Sleep Deprivation Experiment. Fundamental and Clinical Pharmacology, 9(3), 271-279

Reply
0jsalvatier
Here. Have any of these modafinil papers proven particularly useful? Do you update your modafinil survey?
2gwern
Thanks. I update all the time (183 edits since I created it in 20 February 2009), although offhand I couldn't say how many papers I request I then use more precisely than >80%.
0jsalvatier
Requested.
[-]Epiphany00

It's not clear to me whether the offer is to help with any project, for LessWrong articles, or research projects for SI. The title says "for LessWrong" but that may just mean "for any member of LessWrong".

Reply
1jsalvatier
My heuristic is "if it is of interest to LW people then it counts". Does that help? What's your project?
0Epiphany
I want to offer assistance, actually, but I'll probably be back here to ask for some later. ;) Here is what I offer: I know tons about psychology. If there's something you don't know the word for, or don't think has been covered, or are looking for a reference for, I'm an excellent person to ask about that. In addition to knowing a lot about psychology in general (like abnormal psychology), I have also specialized in an arcane area of psychology: gifted adults. I say this is arcane because if you wanted to get a psychology degree that covers gifted adults, the closest degree to that would be developmental psychology, however developmental psychology is focused on children with learning disorders, contains some information about gifted children, and leaves gifted adults out for the most part. Since there were other reasons that getting a degree was not very useful in my case (in addition to them not teaching enough about the population I'm most interested in, even according to an award winning school teacher, school isn't a great way to learn, and I have several learning differences that give me big advantages when learning on my own and big disadvantages when learning in a school environment), I chose to learn independently rather than getting a psychology degree. I don't diagnose or treat anyone, obviously, or claim to be a psychologist, but I can cite and summarize what I've read and suggest perspectives based on my experiences and information. These may be extremely useful. This knowledge is relevant to LessWrong members for two reasons: 1.) According to the last survey, LessWrong's average IQ is 140. This information may be useful for you guys in understanding yourselves. (I fully intend to do some writing for this group - that's a key reason I joined). 2.) People interested in artificial intelligence may want to know random things about human intelligence. I normally rely on the internet or on libraries for information, but I also own some books on these top
0jsalvatier
I'm certainly happy to have your help. However, this service has come to be used primarily as a library for academic papers. I don't think many people will request your services unless you do a little bit of advertising that you're here. Perhaps make a discussion thread about it. I'm more than happy to help you out when you need help.
3jsalvatier
First Second
0Cyan
So awesome. Thanks, John.
2jsalvatier
Glad to help :)
3jsalvatier
Requested.
1jsalvatier
My request was canceled by ILL staff because it has not been released and/or they couldn't get a hold of it elsewhere. I'll try again in 2 months.
0gwern
OK, thanks.
0VincentYu
Here. Got it from Fpv-Uho. :D
0gwern
Thanks.
[-]gwern00

per http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/ej3/scientists_make_monkeys_smarter_using_brain/7g2x

Reply
0VincentYu
I've added them to the original thread.
[-]gwern00

Peter Rossi, "The iron law of evaluation and other metallic rules". Research in Social Problems and Public Policy. 1987;4:3–20.

Reply
2VincentYu
Here.
0gwern
Thanks.
2VincentYu
Requested.
[-][anonymous]00

Need access to a particular paper and need someone with a library subscription to download it for you?

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/331/6018/772.short

Reply
7jsalvatier
here
0[anonymous]
Thank you for the trouble!
[-]gwern00

"Optimum rehearsal patterns and name learning" pg 625-632; TK Landauer, RA Bjork. In: Practical aspects of memory ed. Gruneberg, 1978 ISBN 0471912344

Reply
5VincentYu
Here.
1gwern
Wait, I recognize that URL... I assumed it was one of Bjork's later papers or works, like the one I got the original citation from. >.<
0VincentYu
I was actually under the same impression from the Google result page, and was pleasantly surprised to find that it was in fact the paper you sought.
0laakeus
I'm interested to hear what are your thoughts on Bjork's lab's findings. As I understand, they do recognize spacing effect, but try to make theories beoynd that.
6VincentYu
All five: [1] [2] [3] [4] [5]
0lukeprog
Awesome, thanks!
[-]ChrisHallquist00

Here's another paper I've identified as potentially useful, for same project as was mentioned in previous comments:

Shah, Huma; Warwick, Kevin (June 2010), "Hidden Interlocutor Misidentification in Practical Turing Tests", Minds and Machines 20 (3): 441-454

Reply
1VincentYu
Here.
0ChrisHallquist
Thanks! Looking over this thread, I'm impressed by how many of these requests you've managed to answer.
[-]VincentYu00

Does anyone know any other place where we can ask for free ILL requests? I think jsalvatier and I can request only a single chapter out of each book without running into copyright issues, but there are some (out-of-print and as-yet-unpirated) books from which I'd like to get more than two chapters in electronic form. (AFAIK, Reddit's r/scholar doesn't do ILL requests.)

Reply
1jsalvatier
I have a one or two friends who would probably do ILL requests for me.
[-]VincentYu00

I seek the following book chapters. Could someone submit ILL requests for me?

  1. Ruddick, William. 1980. “Concluding note.” In Philosophers in Medical Centers, edited by William Ruddick, 81–2. New York: Society for Philosophy and Public Affairs. OCLC:7424036

  2. Hooper, Edward. 1999. “The quieting of Louis Pascal.” In The River: A Journey to the Source of HIV and AIDS, 365–74. Boston, MA: Little, Brown and Co. OCLC:39905078

  3. Pascal, Louis. 1986. “Judgement day.” In Applied Ethics, edited by Peter Singer, 105–24. Oxford: Oxford University Press. OCLC:13820779

Reply
1jsalvatier
Requested.
2VincentYu
Hey, I got full-book scans of these books, so I won't need these chapters anymore.
0Pablo
Hey Vincent. Would you mind sending me copies of the three papers? (I assume the first two relate to the third, which I read, and liked, a long time ago. If they are unrelated, I'm not that interested.) My name is Pablo Stafforini, and my email address is FirstName@LastName.com, with the obvious substitutions. Thanks!
1beriukay
I was in the works of getting the Quieting of Louis Pascal chapter when this request got canceled. Here's that one, if you still want it.
1Pablo
Vincent kindly sent me all three items already, but thanks anyway.
0gwern
I've finished reading that chapter, and it's a pretty strange story (the Wikipedia article indicates his AIDS hypothesis is even more refuted these days). Why were you interested in it?
0Pablo
I was interested in that article, which I have yet to read, only because it was authored by Louis Pascal. I'm interested in Pascal because he authored this other article (see here for discussion).
0VincentYu
Have you heard back from the library?
1jsalvatier
Sorry for the long delay here. The issue is that I didn't get e copies of these as I normally do, but instead they placed holds on the books, and I still have to go see if they're available yet. I'm also in SF till the 22nd.
1jsalvatier
I'll try to work this out when I get back.
0VincentYu
No problem, there's no rush. Thanks for doing this. (I've found the third item elsewhere, so please disregard that.)
0jsalvatier
By the way, would you like to have a skype chat sometime next week? I think it would be interesting to talk, and I'm curious who you are.
0VincentYu
Sure. IIRC, my Skype username is (rot13ed) lhivapragr. I actually prefer IM through Gchat, where I can be reached at (rot13ed) nolpwlirl@tznvy.pbz.
[-]lukeprog00

Larrick, Morgan, & Nisbett (1990). Teaching the use of cost-benefit reasoning in everyday life. Psychological Science, 1: 362-370.

Reply
3jsalvatier
Here
[-]lukeprog00

Anand, P., Durand, M., Heckman J., (2011) The Measurement of progress –some achivements and challenges, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A, 174, 851-5.

Reply
3jsalvatier
Here
0lukeprog
Thanks for these last two!
4VincentYu
Here.
0lukeprog
Thanks so much ×3!
[-]lukeprog00

Grossman et al., A Route to Well-being: Intelligence vs. Wise Reasoning. (Non-HTML version, please.)

Reply
4VincentYu
Here.
[-]gwern00

Learning How to “Make a Deal”: Human (Homo sapiens) and Monkey (Macaca mulatta) Performance When Repeatedly Faced With the Monty Hall Dilemma

Initially, humans and monkeys showed indifference between the two options of either staying with their initial choice or switching. With experience, members of both species learned to use the switch strategy at above chance levels, but there were individual differences with only approximately half of the participants in each species learning to choose the more optimal response. Thus, humans and monkeys showed simila

... (read more)
Reply
3jsalvatier
Bam!
0gwern
Thanks.
3jsalvatier
Here, courtesy of my friend.
0gwern
?
2jsalvatier
sorry, bad formatting, it's updated.
0gwern
Ah. Thanks.
0jsalvatier
I don't have access to this and I cannot do an ILL request because I usually use my gf's account and it would currently be disrespectful to use her account (not due to anything related to this).
[-]gwern00

The Effect Of Training Working Memory And Attention On Pupils’ Fluid Intelligence, C J Zhong 2012, Master's thesis.

Can't seem to find the author anywhere to contact, and there's no obvious way to get it via UWash; supposedly you can order it from that site but I'm not sure I care $25 worth. (The abstract indicates that it used no-contact control groups, so the observation of increased IQ isn't that interesting: it's what the current literature predicts.)

Reply
3VincentYu
Can be viewed at: http://www.doc88.com/p-397166703921.html (It's in Chinese.)
1gwern
Oh, thanks. I guess now it's time to start guessing what each table is... How did you find that? Is my Google-fu weak or did you just know that Chinese theses could usually be found on doc88.com, whatever that is?
2VincentYu
Nothing wrong with your Google-fu – I just searched for the article title in Chinese (found the Chinese title through the third English result; my rudimentary understanding of Chinese helped a little since the position of the title is not obvious on that page). I just had a brief look at the tables and tried to translate them, but it turns out that my Chinese sucks too much... My lack of familiarity with n-back studies doesn't help. I can probably help translate very short phrases, but I'm not really able to understand the context.
0gwern
I have partial translations of a number of points: http://groups.google.com/d/msg/brain-training/V_msD2vUjy4/3JN9Vj636K0J What I could really use now is info on the division of the kids into the various experimental & control groups - I'd prefer not to assume the division was just equal...
4jsalvatier
second
0Jack
Thank's so much.
4gwern
1. http://dl.dropbox.com/u/85192141/1992-hershey.pdf 2. Doesn't seem to be available through your link.
2jsalvatier
Requested the second.
2VincentYu
Turns out my library has a physical copy: * Fourth
0jsalvatier
Thanks for your help doing this! :)
0JJXW
Thanks a bunch.
2VincentYu
* Second * Third * Sixth
1VincentYu
* First (downloadable full texts of the book are available) * Fifth * Seventh available here for $2.95 P̶o̶t̶e̶n̶t̶i̶a̶l̶l̶y̶ ̶u̶s̶e̶f̶u̶l̶ ̶i̶n̶f̶o̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶f̶i̶n̶d̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶T̶h̶e̶ ̶b̶r̶a̶i̶n̶ ̶a̶s̶ ̶a̶ ̶c̶o̶m̶p̶u̶t̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶m̶a̶c̶h̶i̶n̶e̶:̶ ̶i̶t̶ ̶w̶a̶s̶ ̶p̶u̶b̶l̶i̶s̶h̶e̶d̶ ̶i̶n̶ ̶E̶l̶e̶c̶t̶r̶i̶c̶a̶l̶ ̶E̶n̶g̶i̶n̶e̶e̶r̶i̶n̶g̶,̶ ̶w̶h̶i̶c̶h̶ ̶w̶a̶s̶ ̶c̶i̶r̶c̶u̶l̶a̶t̶e̶d̶ ̶b̶y̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶A̶m̶e̶r̶i̶c̶a̶n̶ ̶I̶n̶s̶t̶i̶t̶u̶t̶e̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶E̶l̶e̶c̶t̶r̶i̶c̶a̶l̶ ̶E̶n̶g̶i̶n̶e̶e̶r̶s̶ ̶(̶A̶I̶E̶E̶)̶;̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶r̶e̶ ̶i̶s̶ ̶a̶ ̶d̶i̶f̶f̶e̶r̶e̶n̶t̶ ̶j̶o̶u̶r̶n̶a̶l̶ ̶b̶y̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶s̶a̶m̶e̶ ̶n̶a̶m̶e̶ ̶w̶h̶i̶c̶h̶ ̶i̶s̶ ̶c̶i̶r̶c̶u̶l̶a̶t̶e̶d̶ ̶b̶y̶ ̶S̶p̶r̶i̶n̶g̶e̶r̶.̶ ̶T̶h̶e̶ ̶A̶I̶E̶E̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶m̶e̶d̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶I̶E̶E̶E̶ ̶i̶n̶ ̶1̶9̶6̶3̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶n̶o̶ ̶l̶o̶n̶g̶e̶r̶ ̶e̶x̶i̶s̶t̶s̶,̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶I̶E̶E̶E̶ ̶h̶a̶s̶ ̶n̶o̶ ̶b̶i̶b̶l̶i̶o̶g̶r̶a̶p̶h̶i̶c̶ ̶r̶e̶c̶o̶r̶d̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶j̶o̶u̶r̶n̶a̶l̶.̶ (found)
6VincentYu
* Fourth * Fifth
4boredstudent
Super old but in case someone else is looking..second
1VincentYu
* Third
0VincentYu
I am able to view the entire CyberChild paper in this book preview on Google Books.
3jsalvatier
Sorry for the delay, but here it is.
0Jack
Thanks.
2jsalvatier
Requested.
9Jack
There's this copy of the second one.
5VincentYu
First.
6vallinder
Here.
1lukeprog
Thanks, but... Why upload it to a site that requires me to create an account to download the file? Why not just upload it to Rapidshare or one of a thousand other filesharing sites?
4vallinder
Sorry, I didn't realize you had to create an account there. I've now uploaded the file to Rapidshare here.
0lukeprog
Thanks!
5VincentYu
First. Third.
2jsalvatier
Second
4gwern
1. http://dl.dropbox.com/u/5317066/1985-oakhill.pdf 2. http://dl.dropbox.com/u/5317066/1989-oakhill.pdf
0Jack
Thanks.
4gwern
Second: http://dl.dropbox.com/u/5317066/1992-newstead.pdf
0Jack
Thank you.
3VincentYu
First.
3jsalvatier
Requested.
0VincentYu
Commenting to tell you not to worry about the requested paper. (Actually, let me know if comments like this are useful.) ETA: Or maybe a PM is more suitable.
1jsalvatier
Thanks, I get RSS updates, so I saw your comment.
0Jack
Thanks!
6[anonymous]
Here
0Jack
Thanks.
[-]gwern00

Iodine papers (extracted from Pharoah):

... (read more)
Reply
8jsalvatier
1 2 3
0gwern
Looks good, thanks.
0jsalvatier
Requested the first 3, but I can't locate the 4th one in my library system.
0gwern
For that one, I think I found a later publication of it (or perhaps just a better citation): * "Iodine deficiency and the maternal/fetal relationship". In: Dunn JG, Medeiros-Neto GA, eds. Endemic goiter and cretinism: continuing threats to world health. Washington, DC: PAHO, 1974. (Scientific publication 292). The book/report shows up in Worldcat in ~10 institutions, so ILL should get it. Also good would be these 2 chapters: * Pretell EA, Caceres A. "Impairment of mental development by iodine deficiency and its correction. A retrospective view of studies in Peru". In: Stanbury JB, ed. The damaged brain of iodine deficiency. New York, NY: Cognizant Communication, 1994:187–91 * Greene LS. "A retrospective view of iodine deficiency, brain development and behavior from studies in Ecuador". In: Stanbury JB, ed. The damaged brain of iodine deficiency. New York, NY: CognizantCommunication1994:173–85
4jsalvatier
#1
0gwern
Thanks.
2jsalvatier
Ok, requested.
[-][anonymous]00

I've begun research on a paper. The topic is how whole brain emulation (WBE) might affect the macro-economy. In other words, how WBE could affect growth, unemployment, inflation, etc. I'd like some help tracking down the best sources.

I've heard that Robin Hanson has written quite a bit about the topic. I have three of his papers: "Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence," "Long-Term Growth As A Sequence of Exponential Models," and "Is a Singularity Just Around the Corner?" I also have a copy of "Economics of the Singu... (read more)

Reply
0gwern
FWIW, I don't know of any recent or relevant sources you haven't covered.
0jsalvatier
I don't know much about this area, but consider reposting this in the discussion section.
6gwern
* http://dl.dropbox.com/u/5317066/1977-troutman.pdf * http://dl.dropbox.com/u/5317066/1979-doherty.pdf * http://dl.dropbox.com/u/5317066/1988-ofir.pdf
0Jack
Fantastic. Thanks!
4jsalvatier
1 2 3
0lukeprog
Thanks so much, John!
0jsalvatier
Glad to help!
4jsalvatier
Requested.
0lukeprog
Thanks! Received yet?
0jsalvatier
Nope, it's taking an unusually long time.
[-]amin_m50500

I have a manuscript. i'd like to edit it for submitting in ISI journals, How can i edit my article for free?

Reply
8jsalvatier
here it is
5wedrifid
Emailed it. Also, uploaded.
[-]lukeprog00

Needed: Soll & Klayman (2004), Overconfidence in interval estimates.

Reply
2vallinder
Here is the published version, if you still need it.
2gwern
Is http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.121.5860&rep=rep1&type=pdf unacceptable for some reason?
5beriukay
Thinking Machines Extension of Wiener's Theory
1lukeprog
Awesome, thanks!
0jsalvatier
This says the article was in The Columbia Engineering Quarterly which doesnt show up in my searches. Maybe contact the author of that paper for the article?
0gwern
Somewhat to my surprise, he's apparently still alive, although I wonder whether this 91-year old has email or a copy.
1beriukay
He did as of 2009. I just emailed him a request.
[-]lessdazed00

Please help me find: Fallacies and Judgments of Reasonableness: Empirical Research Concerning the Pragma-Dialectical Discussion Rules, by Frans H. van Eemeren, Garssen, Bart, Meuffels, Bert

Reply
3lukeprog
Found.
0jsalvatier
Do you need a particular article/chapter out of this book? I am more easily able to get that then the whole book.
0lessdazed
One problem is that I can't find the table of contents, so I am not exactly sure. Google books has preview available for pages 1-4 and 11-22. I know pages 5-10 would be very helpful for me, probably the rest of chapter one, but maybe not. It is likely everything I need is in pages 5-10. Thank you for your help.
0jsalvatier
Here's the table of contents. Let me know what else you want and I'll try to get it.
0lessdazed
Thank you very much. I'm all set for now.
[-]lukeprog00

Needed: Allen & Wallah (2012). Wise machines.

Reply
5wedrifid
Emailed it to you.
0lukeprog
This one doesn't exist in the USA according to WorldCat. Perhaps somebody in Oxford could make a photocopy for me?
2jsalvatier
Oh, I think I somehow forgot about this one. I think I can order it like I ordered "Ethical Machines".
0lukeprog
Awesome! I cannot order this one like I could for 'Ethical machines'; would much appreciate it if you can do so!
5jsalvatier
here it is.
0lukeprog
Interesting quote:
0lukeprog
Many, many thanks, sir!
0jsalvatier
Glad to be of service.
0jsalvatier
It's now in process.
[-][anonymous]00

If this sort of help is still available, I have some math I'm working through for a post that I'd love to have checked - a page and a half of fairly basic statistics.

It can be found here (pdf): http://dl.dropbox.com/u/430270/lwalienprisoners.pdf

Thanks!

Reply
2jsalvatier
Here are some initial thoughts. I haven't finished working through it, so more to come: Perhaps you should specify if the probability of detecting another player is an overall probability or on a per undetected player basis (so when there is only one player they haven't detected yet, when they detect a player it will always be that player they haven't detected) in the definition of L_K, why is P(K survives turn i) outside the summation? What does i refer to then? Is P(K survives turn i) a constant ? Wont it in general depend on the current state of play?
0[anonymous]
Thanks for looking at it. Probability is on a per player basis (ie: each turn, a player has a chance p for detecting each undetected player). I'll edit this so it's more clear. For L_K (as well as L_R and L_P), the term outside the summation is essentially (probability the player survives the whole game) (game length). It's necessary since the game is of fixed length, and the summation is adding (probability of dying on turn x) (turn x). Consider if the probability of detection is zero, and players will never die - without the term outside the summation, the expected lifetime calculation will return zero.
0jsalvatier
One more comment: Is P(K survives turn i) correct? The formula assumes that the chances of surviving are all independent, but I'm not sure that would be true. I didn't see anything else that stood out to me. What are you trying to learn or show with the model?
1jsalvatier
I'll take a look at this in the near future.
[-]Armok_GoB00

This sounds like it might be very useful. I tend to generate ideas all the time that seem like they could both be of great use to LW at large, and to me personally as well, but don't know how to formalize them, communicate them, or extrapolate to most of the important/useful implications.

Reply
[-]lukeprog-10

www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13869795.2012.706822

Reply
0VincentYu
Here.
0lukeprog
Thanks!
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