TL;DR Sports betting markets are weird because there are many market makers and they unilaterally set their own prices. This combined with the fact that some sports books are better than others presents an opportunity for sharp bettors to execute a statistical arbitrage strategy across books by using information from more skilled books to take advantage of mispricings at less skilled books. The linkpost covers this sharp[1] market based arbitrage sports betting strategy in more detail as well as how I've fared executing this strategy across ~1,500 bets over the past 11 months or so.
I do have some additional thoughts that I think would be relevant to the folks here on LW that I've... (read 466 more words →)
Thank you very much for the offer. I am not looking for this text anymore.
Some more older stuff I am looking for. Any help finding them would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks a bunch.
These papers are relatively old, any help with finding them would be greatly appreciated.
(after laying out the proportions of all the elements that make up the the human body)
Young Walter: I don't know. Just...doesn't it seem like...something's missing?
Young Gretchen: What about the soul?
Young Walter: The soul? There's nothing but chemistry here.
Breaking Bad, Season One Episode Three
The crucial point to be considered in a study of language behavior is the relationship of language and reality, between words and not-words. Except as we understand this relationship, we run the grave risk of straining the delicate connection between words and facts, of permitting our words to go wild, and so of creating for ourselves fabrications of fantasy and delusion.
-- Wendell Johnson, as quoted in Language Thought and Action
Took they survey. Interested in the results. Interestingly enough, I have had an account for a month or two now, but have not posted anything until now. Thanks for putting this together Yvain.
Another working job market economics paper out of Stanford attempts to measure the degree to which sports bettors are overly optimistic. Results largely what you'd expect: people think they're break even when they're actually losing by ~7% and a subset of those people have self control problems.
Funnily enough the way I found out about this paper is from being recruited to participate in it through a targeted ad on social media when I took a trip out to Colorado to farm sports book new account sign up bonuses.