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PhilGoetz comments on Religion, happiness, and Bayes - Less Wrong Discussion
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Observing a change in the degree of happiness that religion provided could cause you to change the probability you assign to its truth. But when you start with already having observed the current level of belief and the level of happiness provided, I don't think you can adjust your belief for happiness, because it's already factored into the current level of belief.
If religion makes people happier, why do you care whether it's true?