The problem is that geese will only do this if they believe food may become scarce during the winter (or their instinct to gorge only kicks in when the environment is such that that would be a reasonable inference; it's not clear whether it's the goose or evolution doing the analysis).

It's quite clear that the goose is doing the analysis, in that whatever analysis is happening is happening on goose hardware. All that is unclear is just how much of it is cognitive, and just how much any cognitive processes there interact with the nearest analogues of consciousness within goose heads.