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falenas108 comments on How to Draw Conclusions Like Sherlock Holmes - Less Wrong Discussion
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There's another massively important step: Check for alternative hypotheses. It's easy to think of explanations for observations, but usually they can have multiple meanings.
This is what CIA research has confirmed--that hypothesizing is easy, but staying open to new ideas after you think you already know the answer is hard (and undervalued).
Edited to add: This is also the topic of Hold Off On Proposing Solutions.