Building off of this and my previous comment, I think that more and more visible rationality verification could help. First off, opening your ideas up to tests generally reduces perceptions of arrogance. Secondly, successful results would have similar effects to the technical accomplishments I mentioned above. (Note I expect wide scale rationality verification to increase the amount of pro-LW evidence that can be easily presented to outsiders, not for it to increase my own confidence. Thus this isn't in conflict with the conservation of evidence.)
I intended Leveling Up in Rationality to communicate this:
But some people seem to have read it and heard this instead:
This failure (on my part) fits into a larger pattern of the Singularity Institute seeming too arrogant and (perhaps) being too arrogant. As one friend recently told me:
So, I have a few questions: