It would convince them that at least some people donate to organizations with visible outputs (like SCI). (Disclaimer: the lack of publications actually is not my true rejection of donating to SIAI, which has more to do with the lack of evidence that SIAI's cause is not only important, but urgent.)
Many people already do that through GiveWell, and yet he appears unconvinced.
I intended Leveling Up in Rationality to communicate this:
But some people seem to have read it and heard this instead:
This failure (on my part) fits into a larger pattern of the Singularity Institute seeming too arrogant and (perhaps) being too arrogant. As one friend recently told me:
So, I have a few questions: