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shminux comments on Falsification - Less Wrong Discussion
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First, an obligatory SMBC reference. Second, the probabilities might be guessed as 50/50, but the confidence intervals on those numbers are so large, they make the numbers themselves meaningless. And third, would you do anything differently if someone convinced you that you are simulated? If not, what does it matter? If yes, why aren't you doing it already?
It would depend on the simulation. If I was convinced that I was in an ancestor simulation, I would do things differently (an ancestor simulation implies a lower chance of human extinction).